December 1, 2019
Summary: A fairly strong area of low pressure is located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and stretches hundreds of miles off to the southwest over the Pacific Ocean. Underneath this zone of low pressure is a 140 knot jet stream which is transporting subtropical moisture into northern and central California. By far the heaviest precipitation has been from Fresno County northward where, on the valley floor, anywhere from .50 to .75 has already been measured. The low will remain pretty much in place through Monday morning then will move southward parallel to the California coast Monday afternoon through Tuesday. As it does, the counterclockwise circulation will cause bands of showers to pinwheel in over the region, mainly north of Kern County.
The low will begin to accelerate eastward Tuesday night and Wednesday through southern califonria, spreading numerous showers and bringing a chance of thunderstorms over the valley. A ridge of upper level high pressure will quickly follow, however it will be a progressive high, meaning it’s on the move and will shift into the Great Basin Thursday night.
Models for the past several days have been very consistent in showing a strong winter storm affecting California Friday and Saturday. not only will this storm bring significant precipitation, but on paper it appears strong winds will also be a factor along the west side and possibly in the south valley, depending on the ultimate placement of the various players.
The precipitation will wind down Saturday night for several days of dry weather with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.
Forecast: Periods of rain north of Kern County through Monday, possibly locally heavy at times from Fresno County north. A chance of light showers in Kern County through Monday night. a chance of showers Tuesday. Showers will become numerous later Tuesday night through Wednesday evening with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday with rain spreading over the area along with strong gusty winds in some areas. Periods of rain Friday night and Saturday. a chance of showers Saturday night, becoming partly cloudy Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/44/58/43/60 | Reedley 59/45/59/45/61 | Dinuba 58/44/57/44/60 | |
| Porterville 60/44/61/45/62 | Lindsay 59/44/58/43/61 | Delano 60/45/63/47/62 | |
| Bakersfield 62/46/63/46/62 | Taft 59/47/62/47/61 | Arvin 61/44/63/44/61 | |
| Lamont 61/46/63/46/61 | Pixley 60/44/60/45/61 | Tulare 59/43/58/43/60 | |
| Woodlake 58/44/58/44/60 | Hanford 59/45/58/45/61 | Orosi 58/42/57/44/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Showers likely 48/59 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 44/61 |
Friday
Rain likely 45/59 |
Saturday
Showers likely 42/58 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 38/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 8 through December 14:This model shows a generally above average risk of rain, especially for northern and central California. Temperatures during this time frame should be close to marginally above average.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine have gusted as high as 48 MPH. Lamont has reported gusts to 41 while most other areas in Kern County have experienced considerably lighter winds. Winds up the west side have been gusting to between 20 and 30 MPH with much lighter winds on the east side. Winds north of Kern County will generally be in the 10 to 15 MPH range out of the east or southeast with stronger gusts through Monday. Along the west side, especially near the Interstate 5 corridor, winds will be out of the southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the east at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH in Kern County. Winds Wednesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Wednesday evening.
Rain: The following are rain totals from the current storm through 6:00am. Bakersfield .04, Mettler .08, Buttonwillow .22, Taft .16, Delano .03, Porterville .15, Tulare .14, Exeter .40, Visalia .17, Hanford .25, Lemoore .36, Reedley .27, Del Rey .42, Fresno .62, Clovis .71, Madera .65, Five Points .31, Firebaugh .62.
Obviously, from these rain totals you can see how precipitation amounts rapidly decline towards the southern end of the valley. That will be the trend all the way through Tuesday. Another half inch plus amounts of precipitation are certainly possible from Fresno County north, mainly along the east side of the valley and over all of Madera County. From roughly a Visalia/Exeter line southward, .25 or less is expected through Tuesday. In Kings County, .25 or less with heavy amounts towards the eastern and northern sectors of the valley can be anticipated. In Kern County, less than .10 can be expected.
That will begin to change Tuesday night and Wednesday as the off shore low opens up and accelerates through northern California, resulting in widespread shower activity including in th south valley this time. There is also a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening which may create localized pockets of heavy rain.
Later Wednesday night through Thursday night will be dry but models continue to show a strong winter storm pounding northern and central California Friday and Saturday with significant amounts of precipitation and strong gusty winds. Models are a bit mixed now on the pattern for a week from Sunday and beyond. Some indicate several days of dry weather while others show a chance of showers about a week from Wednesday. for now, we’ll just deal with the current situation.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/80%
Actual Humidity range November 30, 2019: Delano, 94%/59% Porterville, 89%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .43, Parlier .34, Blackwell Corner .42, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .34, Delano .36. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 56, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 76/29. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 383 -114
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.6- +3.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.72 season. or -.98 Month to Date: .72 -.36
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.07, or +.13. Month to Date: 1.07 +.43
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 171, Parlier 225, Arvin 129, Shafter 159, Stratford 172, Delano 191, Lindcove 170, Porterville 266
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:54 Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:50
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 50 / 37 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 51 / 37 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 51 / 36 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 48 / 33 / 0.07 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 49 / 39 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 35 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 46 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 35 / T /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 0.77 31 3.53 141 2.51 14.06
MODESTO 0.04 0.12 6 2.42 119 2.04 13.11
MERCED M T 0 2.36 119 1.99 12.50
MADERA 0.01 0.29 14 2.12 104 2.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 0.51 30 1.77 104 1.70 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 0.59 39 1.45 97 1.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 1.03 110 0.68 72 0.94 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.91 111 1.31 160 0.82 5.18
SALINAS 0.18 1.03 52 3.56 180 1.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.41 1.42 86 2.37 144 1.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.34 1.81 94 1.81 94 1.93 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/December 2