December 2, 2019
Summary: Over the past 72 hours, a constant feed of moisture has been training across the eastern Pacific Ocean, running from southwest to northeast and taking dead aim at northern sections of central California. On the valley floor from Fresno County northward, 1.0 plus totals are common. Further south in the valley just a few hundredths has been recorded in Kern County. Three to five inch rain totals are common in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills from Yosemite north.
The main feed has moved about 100 miles further north and is coming on shore from roughly San Luis Obispo northeastward through Merced and Madera Counties then from Yosemite north. Both satellite and Doppler radar are showing the path narrowing. The parent low is located roughly 400 miles off the Oregon/northern California coast and is actually moving further off shore. This will reduce the chance of precipitation from Fresno County southward through Tuesday evening. It’s possible the southern half of the valley will remain dry until later Tuesday night when the low finally navigates a right turn and moves inland through southern California late Tuesday night and Wednesday with numerous showers, this time especially over the southern half of the valley.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night for dry weather. Both Thursday and Friday mornings, there will be an excellent chance of fog and low clouds where higher clouds clear out.
We’ve been mentioning for several days now about a strong trough of low pressure digging southward Friday and Saturday. some models this morning show this feature moving in further north with precipitation spreading as far south as the Kern County mountains and with considerably less energy over the entire region than previous models had indicated. Models are also delaying the onset of precipitation until Friday night or even Saturday on some models. Even so, the chance of rain this coming weekend remains relatively high.
After whatever version of this storm moves through, models do agree on a strong ridge of upper level high pressure building into the western states via the eastern Pacific. This could lead us into the first full fledged fog regime of the winter season.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers from Fresno County north through Tuesday. Showers will become likely later Tuesday night through early Wednesday evening. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning with areas of fog and low clouds Thursday morning. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness late Friday with periods of rain late Friday night through Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/41/61/46/57 | Reedley 62/43/61/47/57 | Dinuba 60/41/61/45/57 | |
| Porterville 63/43/61/47/58 | Lindsay 62/42/62/46/58 | Delano 63/43/63/48/57 | |
| Bakersfield 64/46/64/48/46 | Taft 63/47/63/50/57 | Arvin 64/43/63/48/59 | |
| Lamont 63/43/63/47/56 | Pixley 63/42/61/47/57 | Tulare 60/41/61/46/57 | |
| Woodlake 61/41/61/46/57 | Hanford 61/43/61/47/58 | Orosi 60/41/61/46/56 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM fog/partly cloudy 44/61 |
Friday
PM Rain 43/63 |
Saturday
Periods of rain 47/62 |
Sunday
AM showers possible 43/58 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 41/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 9 through December 15: This model is indicating a more consistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California. The chance of rain during this time frame appears low. Temperatures will be governed by the amount of fog and/or low clouds.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be variable to 15 MPH through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Later Wednesday, winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The following are storm totals from roughly the past 72 hours: Bakersfield .04, Mettler .08, Taft .17, Buttonwillow .20, Delano .05, Porterville .14, Blackwell Corners .40, Kettleman City .16, Tulare .16, Stratford .34, Hanford .36, Lemoore .60, Visalia .18, Parlier .41, Reedley .39, Del Rey .69, Fresno 1.00, clovis 1.17, Five Points .45, Firebaugh . 91, Madera 1.20.
Obviously, Fresno and Madera Counties picked up the lion’s share of precipitation. The pineapple connection, or atmospheric river of air, has narrowed considerably and has moved a bit further north. There will be a continuing risk of showers through today, but in all likelihood the southern portion of the valley will remain dry through Tuesday evening.
The main center of low pressure will finally shift eastward, moving rapidly through southern California Wednesday for widespread shower activity and the risk of scattered thunderstorms Wednesday evening. Dry weather will quickly return Wednesday night, continuing through at least Friday morning.
Models for the next storm, this one from the Gulf of Alaska, don’t show the storm having as much punch as earlier projected. Still, rain appears likely anytime from Friday afternoon through Sunday. It will be interesting to see if models continue the trend towards a weaker system and one that is moving north.
After Sunday, models continue to indicate a dry weather pattern lasting for several days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity range December 1, 2019: Delano, 97%/47% Porterville, 97%/58%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .27, Blackwell Corner .37, Arvin .37, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .31, Delano .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 51, Blackwell 54, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 54, Delano 48
Record Temperatures: 74/28. Average Temperatures: 58/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 397 -118
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 0.5- +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.50 season. or -.24 Month to Date: .78 +.74
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.07, or +.11. Month to Date: T -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 171, Parlier 226, Arvin 130, Shafter 159, Stratford 172, Delano 191, Lindcove 174, Porterville 276
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 51 / 46 / 1.16 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 45 / 0.99 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 46 / 0.38 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 45 / 0.37 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 47 / 0.03 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 57 / 45 / 0.17 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 55 / 44 / 0.26 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 45 / 0.03 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 61 / 44 / 0.15 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.50 1.39 54 3.73 145 2.57 14.06
MODESTO 0.48 0.70 33 2.97 142 2.09 13.11
MERCED M T 0 2.60 129 2.01 12.50
MADERA 0.93 1.48 72 2.25 110 2.05 12.02
FRESNO 0.78 1.50 86 1.82 105 1.74 11.50
HANFORD 0.27 0.94 62 1.57 103 1.52 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 1.07 111 0.87 91 0.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.01 0.92 110 1.31 156 0.84 5.18
SALINAS 0.33 1.42 70 3.63 179 2.03 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.71 2.22 131 2.47 146 1.69 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 1.98 100 1.81 91 1.98 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/December 2