December 3, 2019
Summary: Toward the center and west side of the valley there is considerable ground fog this morning. Lemoore, Fresno, Madera, Hanford, and Visalia all are reporting a visibility of ¼ of a mile or less. Bakersfield and Porterville have reasonably decent visibility as of 6:00am.
The southern half of California is overcast as mid and high level moisture continues to stream in from the southwest. The main feature of concern this morning is a low pressure system located roughly 500 miles west of Monterey. This system will move a little further south then will swing inland through southern California late tonight and Wednesday. by 4:00 tomorrow morning, the circulation should be just west of Santa Barbara then over the high deserts by midday.
Precipitation will sweep in from the south/southwest during this period with widespread rain over the valley. Heaviest amounts will do a flip flop as compared to recent events as Kern County will be the recipient of the highest rainfall rates. By Wednesday evening, the low will have opened up and moved into southern Nevada and Arizona. Late Wednesday night through Friday, a ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west with clearing skies in at least some areas. Fog and/or low clouds will again be prevalent Thursday and Friday mornings with afternoon clearing.
Clouds will begin to increase again Friday night as the next Pacific system approaches the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Yesterday, the trend towards a lighter precipitation event began and that trend continues this morning as the main dynamics of this storm will remain over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with the weaker sector over central California. Much of southern California may actually remain dry.
The low will move inland Sunday, continuing mainly light precipitation over the valley. On Sunday night and Monday, a sharp ridge of high pressure will develop over the eastern Pacific with a huge ridge stretching northward, almost to the Arctic Circle. Fortunately, cold air diving southward along the back side of the high will do so well east of California.
If all goes as planned, next week will be the first multi-day fog regime of this early winter season.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy today. Cloudy tonight with a chance of rain after midnight. Rain becoming likely before sunrise. Rain likely at times Wednesday, ending by Wednesday evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning with areas of fog and low clouds Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday with areas of fog and low clouds again Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. showers at times Saturday through Sunday. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday night through Tuesday with widespread fog and low clouds developing late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/47/56/43/61 | Reedley 63/47/57/40/62 | Dinuba 61/45/55/40/61 | |
| Porterville 64/46/56/42/62 | Lindsay 64/47/55/41/61 | Delano 64/48/56/42/63 | |
| Bakersfield 65/50/59/44/62 | Taft 65/51/58/44/62 | Arvin 65/47/56/44/63 | |
| Lamont 64/47/57/45/62 | Pixley 63/45/56/41/62 | Tulare 61/44/56/40/61 | |
| Woodlake 63/45/56/40/62 | Hanford 63/45/56/42/62 | Orosi 62/44/56/40/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM fog/partly cloudy 44/63 |
Saturday
Showers likely 45/63 |
Sunday
Showers likely 45/61 |
Monday
AM fog/partly cloudy 41/57 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partial clearing 40/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 9 through December 15: This model is indicating a more consistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California. The chance of rain during this time frame appears low. Temperatures will be governed by the amount of fog and/or low clouds.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds today will be generally at or less than 7 MPH. Winds tonight will be mainly out of the east at 5 to 12 MPH. local gusts to 30 MPH may occur where Hwy 58 merges with the valley floor just to the east/southeast of Bakersfield. Winds by Wednesday afternoon will be variable to 12 MPH. Winds later Wednesday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Rain will begin to spread into the valley again from the south/southwest sometime after 3:00am with rain at times continuing through Wednesday. this storm will pick up its forward speed as it moves through southern California so all of the precipitation will be over by Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts will be highest along the west side of the valley and in Kern County where between .25 and .33 is expected. Elsewhere, generally .25 or less is likely.
Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through Friday night. models continue the trend of a lighter precipitation event over the weekend. The main dynamics of the next storm will remain over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Even so, periods of light rain can be expected beginning Saturday and lasting through Sunday. A prolonged period of dry weather should set up beginning Sunday. As of now, at least the first half of next week appears dry and quite possibly well beyond.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/95%
Actual Humidity range December 2, 2019: Delano, 98%/46% Porterville, 97%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .25, Parlier .24, Blackwell Corner .30, Arvin .37, Orange Cove .22, Porterville .28, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 75/30. Average Temperatures: 58/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 406 -128
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 53.3- +6.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.50 season. or -.28. Month to Date: .78 +.70
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.07, or +.08. Month to Date: T -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 171, Parlier 226, Arvin 130, Shafter 161, Stratford 172, Delano 193, Lindcove 174, Porterville 284
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 51 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 49 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 57 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 47 / 0.12 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.67 2.64 100 3.73 142 2.63 14.06
MODESTO 0.53 1.48 69 2.97 138 2.15 13.11
MERCED M T 0 2.60 127 2.04 12.50
MADERA T 1.48 71 2.25 108 2.08 12.02
FRESNO T 1.50 84 1.82 102 1.78 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.94 61 1.57 102 1.54 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.07 108 0.87 88 0.99 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.92 108 1.31 154 0.85 5.18
SALINAS 1.21 2.70 129 3.63 174 2.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 2.22 128 2.47 142 1.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.98 98 1.81 89 2.03 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/December 3