December 2, 2019
Summary: Warm subtropical air continues to flood in from the southwest around the eastern side of a low pressure system located roughly 500 miles west of San Francisco. We’ve seen quite a bit of sunshine this afternoon. That, combined with downslope heating off the Kern County mountains, has pushed some temperatures into the upper 60s. At 1:00pm, Bakersfield was at 68, Fresno 68, and Visalia 67. Snow levels have risen considerably. The freezing level overnight was all the way up to 10,600 feet and 8,600 feet over Oakland.
Doppler radar still shows a narrow band of precipitation moving in from the south/southwest into Monterey County then northeastward through Merced County. There’s also a small batch of showers moving on shore in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties which may spill into the western side of the valley. Even so, mostly dry conditions can be expected through Tuesday evening.
Models still depict that low west of the Bay Area accelerating eastward to a position just west of Santa Barbara by Wednesday morning then over the deserts of San Bernardino County by Wednesday afternoon. The counterclockwise circulation around this storm will force bands of showers over the valley, possibly as early as sometime Tuesday night, but Wednesday and Wednesday evening will be the most active. There’s even a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly from Kings and Tulare Counties southward.
Once this system moves eastward, its forward movement will accelerate with dry weather Wednesday night. models continue to slow down the next system which will dig southward out of the Gulf of Alaska, affecting northern and central California possibly as early as sometime Friday night. however, Saturday through most of Sunday looks like the best opportunity. Most of the models are still indicating the best dynamics of this storm will be over the Pacific Northwest and northern California, but precipitation will spread over the entire region.
Models continue to trend towards a large ridge along the Pacific coast, jutting far north into the Yukon Territory and blocking any storminess for a while. Next week may ultimately see our first full fledged fog regime of the season. Keep in mind, meteorological winter begins December 1 and ends February 28.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with a small chance of isolated light showers through Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday evening, becoming likely by sunrise Wednesday. periods of showers Wednesday through Wednesday evening with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly south of Fresno County. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Areas of fog and low clouds will be possible Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday morning with areas of fog and/or low clouds. Increasing cloudiness late Friday morning with a chance of rain by evening. Periods of rain late Friday night through Saturday night with showers likely Sunday. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night. becoming partly cloudy Monday with areas of night and morning fog and/or low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/62/48/55 | Reedley 44/62/48/56 | Dinuba 44/61/46/54 | |
| Porterville 45/63/48/57 | Lindsay 44/63/48/57 | Delano 46/64/46/58 | |
| Bakersfield 47/64/50/58 | Taft 47/63/51/57 | Arvin 46/65/48/58 | |
| Lamont 47/64/49/57 | Pixley 45/64/48/56 | Tulare 43/61/47/55 | |
| Woodlake 44/63/47/57 | Hanford 44/63/47/56 | Orosi 44/61/47/56 | |
Winds: Winds will be variable to 10 MPH through Tuesday evening. Winds will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Wednesday morning with stronger gusts near showers, becoming out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH Wednesday afternoon through evening. Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH Wednesday night through Thursday.
Rain: The main feed of moisture wrapping around low pressure 500 miles west of San Francisco is moving into Monterey County then inland through Merced County while the remainder of the valley is staying high and dry. There are a few isolated showers over San Luis Obispo County which may make it into the west side this afternoon, however, mostly dry conditions will continue through Tuesday evening. The off shore low will then accelerate eastward through southern California, spreading showers over the valley later Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. This event will be just the opposite of the past few days as the heaviest rain will be over the south valley, especially in Kern County. A quarter to a half inch of rain could be measured in some locations in Kern County and even possibly southern Kings and Tulare Counties with perhaps .10 to .20 in Fresno and Madera Counties. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue possibly all the way through Friday as models seem to be picking up on slower movement of the coming weekend’s storm.
Saturday through Sunday will be quite active with the heaviest precipitation from Fresno County north. In fact, showers may not even reach into much of southern California. After Sunday, the pattern will finally dry out for a while with a blocking ridge over and off the west coast.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
Next report: Tuesday morning/December 3