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December 5, 2019/report

 

We apologize for this morning’s delay.  Our internet service was down.

December 5, 2019

Summary: a very temporary ridge of high pressure has moved in overhead.  Yesterday’s storm has now moved into Utah.  With partial clearing last night, there were areas of patchy fog this morning, mainly along the west side.  It’ll burn off in most areas before noon.  Satellite imagery depicts very well a very large low pressure system several hundred miles off the Oregon/northern California coast.  This will be a big player in our weather beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.  As a warm front approaches the northern and central California coast, overrunning precipitation will begin Friday night at the latest, possibly afternoon along the far west side of the valley.  By Saturday morning, the center of circulation will be just off the northwest California coastline.  Differences in pressure will again set up Friday night, lasting  through Saturday night, generating gusty southeast winds up the valley.  Strongest gusts will be along the west side.  Periods of precipitation can be expected Saturday and Saturday night with numerous showers Sunday.  Isolated thunderstorms are again possible Sunday afternoon as the coldest air aloft moves over central California.

 

A massive ridge of upper level high pressure will fill in behind the exiting storm Sunday night with a ridge building into the arctic regions.  Along the eastern side of the high will be a very cold air mass digging into the Rocky Mountains and Midwestern U.S., fortunately much too far to the east to be of a concern to growers.

 

A weak trough of low pressure will move through the high Wednesday, but most models still indicate no precipitation will occur.  With high pressure dominating next week, fog and low clouds and their effect on temperatures will be the main concern.  But, considering the air mass behind the weekend’s storm is relatively mild, no freezing conditions will be expected.

 

Forecast: Areas of fog this morning.  Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy through tonight with areas of fog and low clouds reforming late tonight and Friday morning.  Increasing clouds Friday with a slight chance of rain, mainly along the west side, in the afternoon.  Periods of rain later Friday night through Saturday night.  numerous showers Sunday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday with fog and low clouds becoming widespread nights and mornings.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 61/42/62/48/61 Reedley 63/43/64/48/61 Dinuba  62/42/63/47/41
Porterville 64/41/65/49/62 Lindsay 64/41/65/47/62 Delano 63/44/65/48/61
Bakersfield 65/48/67/52/64 Taft 63/50/66/52/63 Arvin 65/45/66/49/65
Lamont 64/45/66/49/65 Pixley 63/43/65/47/61 Tulare 63/41/63/48/60
Woodlake 63/42/64/46/61 Hanford 63/43/64/48/62 Orosi 63/41/64/47/61

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Showers likely

52/62

Monday

AM fog/pm sun

42/57

Tuesday

Am fog/pm sun

41/59

Wednesday

Am fog/partly cloudy

41/55

Thursday

Am fog/pm sun

43/56

 

Two Week Outlook: December 11 through December 17:  This model is indicating a more consistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California.  The chance of rain during this time frame appears low.  Temperatures will be governed by the amount of fog and/or low clouds.

 

December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average.  This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S.  The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.

 

January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S.  There are two small notations for below average precipitation.  The first is over Louisiana.  The second is over northern and central California.  Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Friday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side through Saturday night.  winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  It’s possible light showers could reach into the west side of the valley sometime Friday afternoon.  Realistically, the chance of rain will increase Friday night, especially after midnight, with periods of rain Saturday through Saturday night.  with a strong westerly flow over central California, rain shadows will plague us along the west side and over the Kern County portion of the valley floor.  Rain will turn to showers Sunday with even the risk of isolated thunderstorms with small hail and localized heavy rain.  The precipitation will end by Sunday evening.  Rainfall amounts over Fresno and Madera Counties could reach another half inch with considerably lesser amounts the further you progress in the valley.  It’s possible no more than a tenth or two may fall in Kern

County and in some locations along the west side.  As of this juncture, next week appears dry as high pressure drives the storm track to our north.  Models vary a great deal regarding a trough of low pressure moving through about Wednesday.  for now, it appears high pressure will chew it up to the point where precipitation is unlikely.  After Wednesday, a dry ridge of high pressure will dominate for high pressure through next weekend.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 40%/95%

Actual Humidity range December 2, 2019: Delano, 98%/46% Porterville, 97%/40%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 0%.  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 0%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .25, Parlier .24, Blackwell Corner .30, Arvin .37, Orange Cove .22, Porterville .28, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano 49

Record Temperatures: 75/30. Average Temperatures: 58/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 406 -128

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for December so far: 53.3- +6.8

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 1.50 season. or -.28.  Month to Date: .78 +.70

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.07, or +.08.  Month to Date: T -.05

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 171,  Parlier 226,  Arvin 130, Shafter 161, Stratford 172, Delano 193, Lindcove 174, Porterville 284

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:55  Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:48

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  51 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  68 /  49 /    T /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  66 /  46 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  65 /  46 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  70 /  48 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  65 /  45 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /  57 /  49 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1500 /  68 /  46 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /  68 /  50 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  54 /  47 / 0.12 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.67    2.64   100    3.73   142     2.63    14.06

MODESTO                       0.53    1.48    69    2.97   138     2.15    13.11

MERCED                           M       T     0    2.60   127     2.04    12.50

MADERA                           T    1.48    71    2.25   108     2.08    12.02

FRESNO                           T    1.50    84    1.82   102     1.78    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.94    61    1.57   102     1.54    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.07   108    0.87    88     0.99     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.92   108    1.31   154     0.85     5.18

SALINAS                       1.21    2.70   129    3.63   174     2.09    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T    2.22   128    2.47   142     1.74    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.98    98    1.81    89     2.03    13.95

 

Next report: Thursday afternoon/December 5

 

Southern California/Southwest Arizona Summary: The low pressure system which resulted n widespread precipitation yesterday has accelerated eastward and is centered over southern Utah this morning.  A weak ridge of upper level high pressure has moved in from the west for a temporary return to dry weather.  Satellite imagery this morning depicts very well a large low pressure system centered several hundred miles off the Oregon/northern California coast.  Most models place the center of this storm just off the northwest California coast by Saturday morning.  Precipitation will spread over the northern 2/3 of California Friday night and early Saturday with light rain spreading over the southern California mountains.  It now appears the dynamics of this system are such that light showers may penetrate into the Antelope Valley with even a small chance in the northern Coachella Valley.  Showers will continue over these same areas through Sunday.  The Imperial valley and southwest Arizona will remain dry for this entire event.  The storm will move into the interior west Sunday night, ending the  precipitation will the possible exception of the Kern County mountains where showers may linger into early Monday morning.  A sharp ridge of high pressure will move into the west Monday through Tuesday for dry weather.  Models do show a weak low moving through southern California Wednesday but for now it looks like it will be marked by variable cloudiness and no precipitation.

Lancaster Forecast: Partly cloudy through Friday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon.  Mostly cloudy Friday night.  a chance of showers Saturday through Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Thursday.

 

Coachella Forecast:  Partly cloudy through Friday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon.  Mostly cloudy Friday night.  a chance of showers Saturday through Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Thursday.

 

Brawley Forecast: Partly cloudy through Friday.  Variable cloudiness Friday night through Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Thursday.

 

Cuyama Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight.  increasing cloudiness Friday with a slight chance of afternoon showers.  Periods of rain Friday night through Saturday night.  showers Sunday.  Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night.  partly cloudy Monday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday.

 

Tehachapi Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight.  increasing cloudiness Friday.   Light showers likely Friday night through Saturday night.  showers Sunday.  A chance of showers Sunday night and early Monday.  Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon.  Clearing Monday night.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday.

 

Yuma Forecast: Partly cloudy through Friday.  Variable cloudiness Friday night through Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Thursday.

 

 

Short Term:    

Lancaster 56/33/58/41/60 Coachella 68/46/68/50/71 Brawley 68/46/71/51/72
Cuyama 61/40/64/45/63 Tehachapi 51/38/52/38/54 Yuma 68/50/69/51/72
3200 feet 55/42/56/41/57    

Wind Discussions: 

Winds at Lancaster: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through tonight.  Winds Friday through Saturday will be mainly out of the east to northeast at 10 to 15 MPh with stronger gusts.  Winds Friday night and Saturday will be out of the southwest at 15 to 25 MPH, continuing Sunday.

Winds at Coachella: Expect winds to be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday.

Winds at Brawley: Expect winds to be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday.

Winds at Cuyama: Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 15 MPH.  by Friday afternoon, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH, increasing to 15 to 35 Friday night through Saturday night with stronger gusts.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 35 MPH Sunday.

Winds at Tehachapi: Winds today and tonight will be generally out of the east at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds Friday afternoon through Saturday night will be out of the east to southeast at 15 to 35 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds will be out of the west at 15 to 30 MPH late Saturday night through Sunday.

Winds at Yuma: Expect winds to be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday.

Rain Discussion: The chance of light showers will begin to increase again possibly as early as later Friday afternoon over the Cuyama Valley and Friday night over the Kern County mountains.  Periods of light showers will spread over the southern California mountains and coastal valleys Saturday with the possibility of light showers spreading into the Antelope Valley.  There’s even a slight chance into the northern Coachella Valley.  The Imperial Valley and southwest Arizona will remain dry.  Light showers will continue in those same areas until Sunday with dry weather returning over all the region Sunday night.  high pressure will take over Monday through Tuesday night.  models still project a weak low will move through southern California Wednesday, but at this point it appears too weak to produce precipitation.  Looks like we’re in for a prolonged period of dry weather.