December 6, 2019
Summary: Skies in most locations are pretty clear this morning. There is patchy dense fog in a few places. A massive area of low pressure is off the Oregon/northern California coast with a cold front flanked on the east side of the storm, extending southwestward over the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation has begun along the northwest California coast and will spread over much of northern California today then down to roughly a San Francisco/Stockton line by later this evening. By midday Saturday, the low will be just to the west of Eureka as the front moves through central California. Gusty southeasterly winds will increase, especially from Fresno County northward where gusts in excess of 30 MPH are expected. As the low tracks across Oregon and northern California, the colder sector of the storm will arrive by Saturday evening. Snow levels in the mountains will begin at roughly 10,000 feet, plummeting down to 5,000 to 6,000 feet Saturday night. as the main body of low pressure moves across northern and central California Sunday, daytime heating just may trigger a few thunderstorms, mainly north of Kern County. One element of this storm showing up is a strong rain shadow along the west side as well as in Kern County where just light amounts of precipitation are expected. Lift along the Sierra Nevada will squeeze out heavy precipitation, perhaps 2 to 3 feet of new snow above 7,000 feet.
Showers will continue for a time Sunday night as models are indicating now that this system may be with us longer than expected. A sharp ridge of upper level high pressure will build right along the coast of North America with the ridge building far to the north into northwest Canada. This will result in an arctic outbreak for the Rocky Mountain region and the Midwest Monday through Wednesday. we are very fortunate the high is deciding to build right along the Pacific coast, meaning reasonably mild weather will continue.
For next week, the forecast looks dry with one wild card: a weak trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday. for now, it appears any shower activity will remain north of a Monterey/Merced line, however it may be enough to reduce the potential fog coverage which should be a big factor this coming week, assuming higher clouds don’t disrupt the radiational cooling process. Even the two week outlook is indicating above average temperatures with below average precipitation through the middle of the month.
Forecast: Patchy fog this morning, otherwise mostly clear. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Mostly cloudy tonight. rain overspreading the valley Saturday, continuing at times Saturday night. showers Sunday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers ending Sunday night. partly to mostly cloudy Monday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Variable cloudiness Tuesday night through Wednesday night with areas of night and morning valley fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday with widespread night and morning fog and low clouds.
|Madera 64/49/62/50/61||Reedley 65/50/65/51/60||Dinuba 65/49/62/50/60|
|Porterville 67/51/62/51/60||Lindsay 66/49/62/50/61||Delano 66/50/64/48/62|
|Bakersfield 68/53/67/54/62||Taft 66/53/67/53/62||Arvin 68/52/67/53/62|
|Lamont 68/50/67/52/62||Pixley 66/50/62/50/61||Tulare 64/49/62/50/60|
|Woodlake 65/49/62/49/60||Hanford 65/50/62/51/61||Orosi 65/48/62/49/60|
Seven Day Forecast:
Am fog/partly cloudy
Am fog/partly cloudy
Patchy fog/variable clouds
Am fog/partly cloudy
Am fog/pm sun
Two Week Outlook: December 11 through December 17: This model is indicating a more consistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California. The chance of rain during this time frame appears low. Temperatures will be governed by the amount of fog and/or low clouds.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds this morning will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts this afternoon. Winds later tonight through Saturday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH from Fresno north with gusts over 30 MPH possible. Winds in Tulare, Kings, and Kern Counties will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, slowly diminishing Sunday night with winds of generally at or less than 8 to 15 MPH Monday.
Rain: Most models this morning have slowed down the onset of precipitation which is not unusual when dealing with strong winter storms. Rain will begin to overspread the valley late tonight and Saturday morning with on and off precipitation through Saturday evening. As is typical with strong winter storms, a strong rain shadow will develop along the west side of the valley as well as the valley portion of Kern County. Rainfall in western Fresno and Kings Counties will tally up to no more than .25 and with a bit of luck perhaps .10 or so in Kern County. South of a Visalia/Exeter line, perhaps .25 to .33 could be measured with possibly as much as .50 in eastern Fresno and Madera Counties. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Where these storms track, more than .50 is possible. Showers will wind down Sunday night with most of the action over the Sierra Nevada by Monday morning. I’m still going with dry weather for all of next week, but we’ll still have to keep an eye on Wednesday when a weak trough moves through. For now, it appears rain will spread no further south than a Monterey/Merced line.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity range December 5, 2019: Delano, 100%/58% Porterville, 98%/54%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 7% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .17, Parlier .19, Blackwell Corner .22, Arvin .36, Orange Cove .20, Porterville .24, Delano .25. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 56, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 70/28. Average Temperatures: 57/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 440 -151
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 53.3- +7.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.82 season. or -.09. Month to Date: 1.10 +.89
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.27, or +.20. Month to Date: .20 +.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 174, Parlier 235, Arvin 130, Shafter 166, Stratford 182, Delano 206, Lindcove 185, Porterville 310
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:45
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 43 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1537 / 64 / 45 / 0.02 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 64 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 46 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.27 116 3.86 137 2.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 1.50 65 3.05 132 2.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.28 201 2.69 126 2.13 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.61 74 2.42 111 2.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.82 95 1.91 100 1.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.36 84 1.67 104 1.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.27 119 0.89 83 1.07 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.04 114 1.31 144 0.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.22 143 3.87 172 2.25 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.62 193 2.84 151 1.88 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.32 106 1.90 87 2.19 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/December 6