December 8, 2019
Summary: Scattered showers continue to move across the valley this morning. Even so, rainfall amounts have been quite light throughout the San Joaquin Valley with many locations receiving less than .10. As of 6:00am, Bakersfield had yet to record measurable precipitation. Once the daytime heating effect gets underway, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. The main body of low pressure will be over central California today, moving quickly into southern California tonight.
A strong ridge of upper level high pressure is just off shore and will move inland Monday through Tuesday. That will trap low level moisture on the valley floor as a warm air inversion develops for increasing clouds and low clouds nights and mornings.
A weak trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday. models have consistently indicated showers will move no further south than a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. However, increasing cloud cover will inhibit fog formation Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. After Wednesday, a high pressure system will set up shop off the Baja and southern California coasts with the main storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest, affecting roughly the northern ¼ of California from time to time. With high pressure above the valley floor, a warm air inversion will develop for a higher chance of fog and low clouds later this week. This could persist through the day in some areas.
In the upper atmosphere this week, the flow will be mainly out of the west, efficiently keeping temperatures above average over the foothills and mountains. Fog will determine temperatures on the valley floor. Overall though, this very mild December will continue through the week and into next week.
Forecast: Periods of scattered showers today with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mostly to partly cloudy tonight and Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds Tuesday. Becoming mostly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday. partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Generally partly cloudy skies Thursday night through Sunday with potentially widespread night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 60/41/57/36/58 | Reedley 61/42/57/37/58 | Dinuba 59/41/56/35/57 | |
Porterville 62/42/57/37/58 | Lindsay 62/41/58/35/58 | Delano 62/42/57/39/58 | |
Bakersfield 63/48/58/43/58 | Taft 63/49/59/43/59 | Arvin 63/43/59/41/60 | |
Lamont 62/46/59/39/61 | Pixley 61/42/57/38/58 | Tulare 60/40/56/36/57 | |
Woodlake 61/42/57/36/59 | Hanford 61/43/57/38/58 | Orosi 60/42/57/35/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 42/58 |
Thursday
AM fog/partly cloudy 41/58 |
Friday
Am fog/partly cloudy 42/57 |
Saturday
Am fog/partly cloudy 42/56 |
Sunday
Am fog/partly cloudy 42/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 15 through December 21: According to this model, the very mild December we’re experiencing this year will continue. There is a risk of rain during this time frame.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds from late this morning through the early evening hours will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly near showers or thunderstorms. Winds later tonight through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Rainfall amounts have been light through this entire event so far. There are scattered showers over the valley floor this morning which will become more numerous during the late morning and afternoon hours as the daytime heating process gets underway. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as the pool of cold, unstable air moves in over the valley floor. Localized heavy rain and small hail will occur with any thunderstorm development. This storm will move off to the southeast tonight, ending any further chance of showers. Dry weather will prevail this upcoming week even though a weak trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday. precipitation will remain north of a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. From Thursday and into next week, the main storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern ¼ of California with a continuation of dry weather for central California.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/100%
Actual Humidity range December 7, 2019: Delano, 100%/62% Porterville, 95%/58%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .19, Parlier .22, Blackwell Corner .26, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .26, Delano .27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 56, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 77/25. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 457 -173
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 54.1- +8.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.89 season. or -.12. Month to Date: 1.17 +.86
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.28, or +.15. Month to Date: .21 +.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 174, Parlier 240, Arvin 130, Shafter 168, Stratford 185, Delano 210, Lindcove 187, Porterville 321
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:00 Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 53 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 52 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 51 / 0.06 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 50 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 52 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 63 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 50 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 67 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.01 3.39 115 3.87 132 2.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.06 1.56 64 3.05 126 2.42 13.11
MERCED 0.01 4.29 195 2.69 122 2.20 12.50
MADERA 0.02 1.63 71 2.42 106 2.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.06 1.88 94 1.92 96 2.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.06 1.42 86 1.71 103 1.66 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 1.27 112 1.20 106 1.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.04 109 1.31 138 0.95 5.18
SALINAS T 3.22 136 3.87 164 2.36 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.14 3.78 191 2.84 143 1.98 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 2.34 101 1.95 84 2.32 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/December 9