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Forecast

December 9, 2019/report

December 9, 2019

Summary: Congratulations!  We are now in a full blown fog regime for the first time this winter season.  Every location from Marysville in the Sacramento Valley to the base of the Kern County mountains is reporting ½ mile visibility with many locations down to less than ¼ of a mile.  Infrared satellite imagery shows the cloud deck is rather thick and it covers the lower foothills on all sides of the valley, meaning it will be difficult to burn off even during the afternoon.  A strong ridge of upper level high pressure is anchored just off shore and will shift inland tonight and Tuesday.  This high actually extends far to the north, up into Alaska, which in part is driving arctic air southward into the northern Rockies and the Midwestern U.S.  A few locations this morning in North Dakota are approaching 20 degrees below 0 temperatures.’

 

The air mass behind the weekend storm is relatively mild with the flow aloft remaining out of the west this week.  Expect somewhat above average temperatures in the foothill and mountain areas with temperatures on the valley floor being governed by fog coverage and the amount of clearing that ultimately occurs during the afternoons.

 

The ground fog this morning will lift into a low overcast late today with only a chance of clearing later in the afternoon.  Where the sun does shine this afternoon, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s.  Where it does not, highs will only be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.  A weak trough of low pressure will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  this could be enough to break up the inversion above the valley floor.

 

After Wednesday, a series of Pacific storms will ride over the top of upper level  high pressure centered off the southern California coast.  Some models are showing light precipitation over central California Saturday into early Sunday.  Others, though, show dry conditions continuing.

 

Forecast: Widespread dense fog this morning, lifting into a low overcast this afternoon.  Fog and/or low clouds tonight through Tuesday with partial clearing possible Tuesday afternoon.  Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with areas of fog and low clouds Wednesday morning.  Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.  Widespread low clouds and fog Thursday and Friday mornings with partly cloudy afternoons.  Mostly cloudy Friday night through Sunday with a slight chance of showers late Saturday through Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with areas of fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 52/42/53/41/57 Reedley 52/43/53/42/57 Dinuba 51/42/52/43/56
Porterville 51/42/52/42/59 Lindsay 51/41/53/42/58 Delano 51/43/58/43/59
Bakersfield 51/45/53/45/58 Taft 57/46/58/46/60 Arvin 52/44/55/44/60
Lamont 53/43/55/43/60 Pixley 52/43/54/43/59 Tulare 51/42/53/41/56
Woodlake 53/41/58/41/59 Hanford 52/41/54/41/58 Orosi 51/41/53/41/57

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

AM fog/partly cloudy

41/56

Friday

AM fog/partly cloudy

42/56

Saturday

Pm showers possible

45/59

Sunday

Slight chance of showers

45/55

Monday

AM fog/partly cloudy

40/55

 

Two Week Outlook: December 16 through December 22:  This model is indicating an increasing chance of precipitation will occur during this period.  Evidently, a storm or storm systems could arrive from the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in below average temperatures.

 

December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average.  This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S.  The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.

 

January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S.  There are two small notations for below average precipitation.  The first is over Louisiana.  The second is over northern and central California.  Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.

 

Winds:  Winds will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.

 

Rain:  The following are rainfall amounts from the weekend storm.  A number of locations did rather well as locally heavy showers and thunderstorms pounded parts of the valley yesterday afternoon.  Bakersfield recorded .31, Arvin .24, buttonwillow .16, Taft .37, Delano .16, Porterville .39, Tulare .50, Exeter .69, Visalia .54, Hanford .39, Lemoore .47, Reedley .38, Del Rey .58, Orange Cove .57, Fresno .65, Clovis 1.03, Madera .29.

 

As you can see, we did rather well with this storm after all. Expect dry weather for the remainder of the work week.  There is a slight chance of light precipitation over the weekend as some models project  low pressure system will ride over the top of the high and into northern and central California.  Other models, however, continue to reflect dry conditions continuing,.  For now, we’ll just add a minimal chance of light precipitation to the forecast for the second half of the weekend.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 90%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 90%/100%

Actual Humidity range December 8, 2019: Delano, 100%/60% Porterville, 96%/61%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .24, Parlier .24, Blackwell Corner .27, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .28, Delano .28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 55, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 56, Delano 51

Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 56/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 465 -185

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for December so far: 54.4- +8.4

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 2.47 season. or +.41.  Month to Date: 1.75 +1.39

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.58, or +.42.  Month to Date: .51 +.29

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 176,  Parlier 240,  Arvin 130, Shafter 168, Stratford 185, Delano 210, Lindcove 187, Porterville 322

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:00  Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:44

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1500 /  58 /  55 / 0.27 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1500 /  59 /  54 / 0.59 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1523 /  60 /  52 / 0.33 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  64 /  50 / 0.67 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1544 /  64 /  54 / 0.31 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  65 /  50 / 0.52 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1539 /  61 /  48 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  67 /  52 / 0.38 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1552 /  59 /  52 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.09    3.90   130    3.87   129     3.01    14.06

MODESTO                       0.13    1.78    72    3.05   123     2.48    13.11

MERCED                        0.23    4.52   202    2.69   120     2.24    12.50

MADERA                        0.22    1.90    82    2.42   104     2.32    12.02

FRESNO                        0.58    2.47   120    1.92    93     2.06    11.50

HANFORD                       0.33    1.75   104    1.71   101     1.69    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.30    1.58   136    1.20   103     1.16     6.47

BISHOP                        0.01    1.06   109    1.31   135     0.97     5.18

SALINAS                       0.58    4.09   169    3.87   160     2.42    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.89    4.70   230    2.84   139     2.04    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.34    2.68   113    1.95    82     2.38    13.95

 

Next report: Monday afternoon/December 9