December 26, 2019
Summary: meteorologically speaking, this has been a fascinating storm system to watch. The center of circulation is now approaching the California/Mexico border near San Diego. The counterclockwise circulation around this storm has fed a very moist layer of air around the top of this system and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor for much of the day with heavy snow over the Kern County mountains. As of midday, Tehachapi had recorded a foot of snow and as of 12:30pm, Frazier Park had recorded 18 inches with heavy snow continuing. Doppler radar is showing the dry line moving south through Kern County now so the precipitation over the valley floor will come to an end by late this afternoon. Many locations south of the Kern County line have received in excess of .75 of rain.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build inland tonight. the combination of the exiting low and the incoming high will create a northerly flow aloft Friday and Saturday, ensuring relatively cold air remains on the valley floor. Dew points this afternoon are amazingly high and are running in the low to mid 40s. Where skies clear tonight, widespread dense fog will be likely which will persist through much of the morning Friday before some clearing takes place Friday afternoon. As the high builds inland over the weekend, enough of a warm air inversion will develop for another round of widespread fog and low clouds Saturday and Sunday mornings.
The next potential rain producer will be in the form of another cold low which will slide southward just off the Pacific coast. Models are a bit more in line this afternoon in showing this system moving southward just off the central coast Sunday night and Monday. From there, it will move inland through northern Baja Monday night. this has been a fairly common pattern so far this wet season which is why southern California is enjoying well above average precipitation to this point while the northern half of the state remains below average. There will be a chance of showers Sunday night and Monday if the low slides southward close enough to the coastline. If it’s farther out to sea than models are currently indicating, the chance of showers will be very minimal.
The first week of the new decade will likely be dry as models show a large high over the eastern Pacific and much of the western U.S. for lots of fog and low clouds.
Forecast: The rain in Kern County will end by this evening. Widespread fog and low clouds will form later tonight through Friday morning with some clearing Friday afternoon. Fog and low clouds will be widespread again Friday night through Sunday morning with some afternoon clearing. Mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with a chance of light showers. Partly cloudy Monday night. mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday with widespread night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/51/30/53 | Reedley 32/51/31/53 | Dinuba 31/50/30/52 | |
| Porterville 34/51/31/53 | Lindsay 32/51/30/52 | Delano 34/51/32/53 | |
| Bakersfield 38/51/35/54 | Taft 34/51/35/53 | Arvin 35/51/32/54 | |
| Lamont 35/52/33/54 | Pixley 34/51/32/53 | Tulare 31/51/30/53 | |
| Woodlake 32/51/31/53 | Hanford 34/52/31/52 | Orosi 32/51/30/53 | |
Winds: winds tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The following are storm totals, mostly in Kern County due to the fact that’s where the rain has been concentrated today: Bakersfield .63, Lamont .46, Delano .47, Shafter .42, Mettler .66, Taft .76, Belridge .52, Stratford .80, Kettleman Hills .32, Lemoore .76, Hanford .35.
Most locations in eastern Tulare County and Fresno and Madera Counties recorded less than .10.
The rain in Kern County this afternoon will diminish by this evening with dry weather tonight through Sunday. There will be at least a small chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday as yet another cold low moves southward just off shore, moving inland through northern Baja Monday night. the best chance of rain will be along the far west side of the valley.
The first week of the new decade will more than likely be dry as persistent upper level high pressure is showing up on models.
Frost Discussion: The air mass on the valley floor is extremely moist. Dew points are in the low to mid 40s with air temperatures ranging from the upper 40s in Kern County to the lower 50s elsewhere. Thus, fog will have no problem forming tonight on a widespread basis which may very well keep most locations above freezing. Generally speaking, readings will end up in the mid to upper 30s with colder locations down into the lower 30s. there’s a chance a few isolated river bottom areas mainly in Fresno and Madera Counties could briefly dip into the upper 20s.
For Saturday and Sunday mornings, the main challenge will be the potential for widespread fog and low clouds. Significant amounts of precipitation have fallen in the south valley from this storm which will help maintain high dew points. Widespread low to mid 30s are expected Saturday and Sunday mornings with a few river bottom and low pockets possibly dipping into the upper 20s if skies remain relatively clear. Higher clouds will increase Monday morning, keeping conditions above freezing. After Monday, lower 30s in the colder locations are certainly possible, but it does appear the first week in the new decade will be governed by upper level high pressure, creating a warm air inversion. No doubt this will result in abundant fog and low clouds with afternoon clearing. For now, there’s nothing on the horizon pointing to a cold air mass invading the valley.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 27/morning