December 30, 2019
Summary: As expected, the center of circulation of a low pressure system moved southward too far off shore to result in significant precipitation for the valley. The heaviest rainfall amount I could find was .08 at Huron. Heaviest precipitation was over the coastal mountains and along the coast where anywhere from .25 to .50 was observed. The center of circulation of the low is now roughly 300 miles to the west of LAX and is moving steadily southward. Doppler radar continues to indicate the main dynamics of this storm is off the southern California coast, so even southern California will be generally dry with the exception of the mountain areas where lifting comes into play.
Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific is already beginning to move into Oregon and northern California, creating a northeast flow aloft. This high will dominate the eastern Pacific Ocean and roughly the western one-third of the United States through the upcoming week. The main challenge will be night and morning fog and low clouds and the amount of clearing we see on any given day during the afternoon.
Dew points are expected to remain in the low to mid 40s, meaning there will be plenty of moisture trapped underneath a warm air inversion.
Medium range models beginning about the 8th or 9th continue to show the evolution of a cold trough of low pressure in one way, shape, or form over and along the west coast for possibly the first active pattern of the year with temperatures dropping to below seasonal averages.
Forecast: A chance of light showers over Kern County for a time this morning, otherwise it will be mostly to partly cloudy today. Partly to mostly cloud ytonight with areas of fog developing after midnight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Sunday with some clearing each afternoon after areas of night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Sunday night. variable cloudiness Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/32/56/33/57 | Reedley 56/33/56/33/57 | Dinuba 55/32/56/32/57 | |
| Porterville 57/33/58/32/57 | Lindsay 56/31/56/32/57 | Delano 57/35/58/36/59 | |
| Bakersfield 56/39/59/40/59 | Taft 56/40/58/41/58 | Arvin 55/36/59/35/59 | |
| Lamont 55/37/59/35/59 | Pixley 57/33/56/33/57 | Tulare 55/32/56/32/57 | |
| Woodlake 56/32/56/33/57 | Hanford 57/34/56/34/57 | Orosi 55/32/56/32/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 37/57
|
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 37/56 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 37/60 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 38/59 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 41/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 6 through January 12: This model continues to indicate a cold trough of low pressure will affect the eastern pacific and much of the western U.S. during this time frame. The chance for precipitation is relatively high with temperatures falling below average.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds tonight through Thursday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There will be a continuing risk of light showers over the valley portion of Kern County for a time this morning. the remainder of the valley will remain dry. Expect dry weather over the entire valley this afternoon and more than likely for the next week, although medium range models are hinting at a change about Monday or Tuesday of next week. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast for Monday and Tuesday and study the situation as we progress through the week.
Frost Discussion: Mostly locations will be above freezing tonight. Dew points behind a low pressure system off the southern California coast will remain fairly high and generally in the low to mid 40s at mid afternoon. Skies will clear from north to south during the day, but no doubt some lingering cloud cover will bank up against the Tehachapis and the Sierra Nevada foothills. Under ideal conditions, in other words where skies clear, unprotected river bottom and similar low spots could drop down to 30 degrees. Most locations tonight, though, will range in the low to mid 30s to possibly even near 40 where cloud cover remains. During this upcoming week, conditions will be quite stable under a dome of upper level high pressure. The main forecast challenge will be the amount of fog and low clouds during the night and morning hours and how much clearing is observed on any given afternoon. Any night with clear skies this upcoming week will drop9 into the low to mid 30s. medium range models indicate the possibility of a colder and possibly active pattern around the 9th or later next week. For now, it doesn’t appear to be a freeze pattern, but it will require close watch late this week and next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity range December 29, 2019: Delano, 100%/44% Porterville, 98%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .24, Parlier .22, Blackwell Corner .24, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .22, Delano .23. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 51, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 67/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 811 -276
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 50.0- +5.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 2.88 season. or -.45. Month to Date: 2.16 +.53
Since Oct 1, 2019 Bakersfield: 2.59, or +.71. Month to Date: 1.52 +.58
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 340, Parlier 413, Arvin 285, Shafter 332, Stratford 353, Delano 393, Lindcove 443, Porterville 654
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 Sunset: 4:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 4.19 91 5.88 128 4.58 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.22 82 4.49 114 3.93 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.93 146 3.87 115 3.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.26 63 2.99 83 3.60 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.87 86 2.33 70 3.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.31 78 1.87 63 2.96 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.59 138 1.30 69 1.88 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 71 1.57 101 1.55 5.18
SALINAS 0.04 4.80 127 4.77 127 3.77 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.78 166 3.60 103 3.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.86 99 2.74 70 3.89 13.95
Next report: December 30/afternoon