January 4, 2020
Summary: For the second day in a row, temperatures have risen into the low to mid 60s. A dry disturbance moved through uneventfully early this morning. another wave of weak low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday. This will lower temperatures by 7 to 10 degrees or so. The flow in the upper atmosphere will remain generally out of the west, resulting in mild conditions. It will be Wednesday before another shift in the pattern occurs, allowing the next weak trough of low pressure to move quickly from west to east across the Pacific Northwest and northern California. It’s possible lift in the atmosphere along the Sierra Nevada could squeeze out some light showers over the higher elevation. Additional impulses will move inland Thursday and Friday.
I still want to concentrate on next Saturday, January 11, as recent models have been amazingly consistent in showing the eastern Pacific high moving further off shore, possibly allowing a Pacific storm in the Gulf of Alaska to slide into northern and central California next weekend. For now, I’ll keep the chance of showers out of the forecast, but that may change in the next day or two if models continue to point in the direction of active weather.
After the eleventh and twelfth, theoretically a north/south jet stream will develop from western Canada and into California. There is a fundamental difference on models this afternoon as this flow really does not pick up arctic air from northwest Canada or Alaska. So, even though temperatures would certainly fall to below average, it does not appear that a freeze pattern would commence.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight with patchy fog developing after midnight. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning with patchy fog forming again Monday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. variable cloudiness at times Wednesday through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/55/34/55 | Reedley 37/56/34/55 | Dinuba 35/54/33/54 | |
| Porterville 36/56/33/55 | Lindsay 35/56/33/54 | Delano 38/57/34/55 | |
| Bakersfield 41/55/39/54 | Taft 42/57/40/55 | Arvin 39/55/35/54 | |
| Lamont 40/55/36/55 | Pixley 38/57/33/54 | Tulare 37/56/33/54 | |
| Woodlake 38/56/33/54 | Hanford 38/57/35/55 | Orosi 37/56/33/54 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible, mainly along the west side of the valley. Winds Sunday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through at least next Friday night. it’s possible we could see a change towards a wet weather pattern beginning later next weekend, at least models have been trending in that direction for the past few days. For now, we’ll keep that out of the official forecast, but it’s definitely subject to change over the next day or two.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight. It’s possible coldest locations could dip into the lower 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Most locations, though, will remain at least marginally above freezing. From Wednesday through Friday, look for above freezing conditions due to cloud cover and a relatively mild westerly flow. We could see a change towards colder weather beginning a week from tomorrow, but for now it doesn’t appear a critical weather pattern will develop.
Next report: January 5/am