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Forecast

January 6, 2020/pm update

January 6, 2020

Summary: Bakersfield, Porterville, and Visalia had hazy sunshine as of 1:00pm while Lemoore was reporting a broken low overcast at 800 feet and Fresno and Madera still had a low overcast based at around 1,000 feet, which will probably burn off before the day is through.  With a nice warm air inversion tonight, widespread ground fog is anticipated, initially beginning up and down the center of the valley north of Kern County then fanning out towards the foothills on all sides of the valley.  Overnight lows tonight will also be determined by how early the fog sets up.

 

The flat area of upper level high pressure with us currently will shift rapidly eastward Tuesday night, allowing the first of two weather systems to move through beginning Wednesday.  it appears any precipitation from this event will be mainly north of a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line.

 

A colder system will race through central California Thursday with a chance of light showers, especially over the Sierra Nevada, but light showers are possible over the valley floor, mainly north of Kern County.

 

The pattern for Friday through Sunday indicates very fast low pressure systems will slide from northwest to southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska and through the Pacific Northwest then just east of the Sierra Nevada.  Some models show these systems skirting the Sierra Nevada Saturday through Sunday morning which could cause showers to spread over the valley floor.

 

From Sunday night through Wednesday, there will be a broad area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest eastward into the northern Rockies with dry conditions over much of California.  Models are hyping up the potential forecast from the 14th to the 19th.  A strong low is projected to be off the Pacific Northwest with an atmospheric river of air moving into northern and central California, potentially resulting in heavy precipitation.  This far out, of course, it’s a shaky forecast but the new two week model indicates there’s an 80% chance of above average precipitation.

 

Forecast: Widespread fog and/or low overcast tonight through Tuesday night with partial clearing Tuesday afternoon.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday after areas of morning fog and low clouds.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday night with a slight chance of showers after midnight.  A chance of showers Thursday, mainly north of Kern County.  Variable cloudiness Thursday night through Sunday with another chance of showers Saturday through Sunday morning.  partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 31/56/37/56 Reedley 33/57/35/56 Dinuba 31/55/36/55
Porterville 32/58/37/57 Lindsay 31/57/35/55 Delano 33/58/37/54
Bakersfield 40/59/40/54 Taft 41/60/41/55 Arvin 35/61/38/54
Lamont 37/62/39/55 Pixley 32/58/37/54 Tulare 31/55/36/54
Woodlake 32/59/36/55 Hanford 34/57/37/55 Orosi 31/57/35/55

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH tonight through Tuesday night with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Wednesday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with light winds Wednesday night.  winds Thursday will also be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties.

 

Rain:  There will be a chance of light showers late Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly north of Kern County.  If precipitation does spread as far south as the valley, most locations will pick up no more than .10.  Dry weather will return Thursday night through Friday night.  A series of systems will dive southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin.  A couple of models this afternoon indicate these systems may track far enough to the west for a chance of light showers Saturday through Sunday morning.  again, if precipitation falls at all, rainfall amounts will be quite light.  For now, it appears dry weather will prevail Sunday afternoon through Wednesday.

 

Frost Discussion:  The outcome for tonight’s low temperatures will be a race between fog and low clouds and fairly strong radiational cooling.  As of 1:30 pm, there were still areas of low clouds in various spots, especially in Madera and Fresno Counties.  Many other areas though have broken into hazy sunshine.  With dew points in the mid 40s this afternoon and a fairly sharp warm air inversion, ground fog should rapidly form where skies are clear, first towards the center of the valley then fanning out towards the foothills on all sides.  The bottom line is, where fog and low overcast are dominant, above freezing conditions can be expected.  Areas out of the fog, especially near the foothills, will drop into the lower 30s.  Keep in mind, also, temperatures could shoot down into the upper 20s right along the edge of the fog bank, climbing back up after the fog seals in.  I anticipate above freezing conditions Wednesday through Friday mornings due to increasing cloud cover.  Frost is unlikely Saturday through Monday due to cloud cover.  Next week, we could see lower 30s again Monday through Wednesday if skies remain reasonably clear, which means fog and low clouds will also play their part.  Still nothing on the weather horizon suggesting a freeze pattern.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

31

Mcfarland

32

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

32

Madera

31

Belridge

31

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

Next report: January 7/am