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Forecast

January 6, 2020/report

January 6, 2020

Summary:  As of 7:00am, Bakersfield was reporting a low overcast based at 2,500 feet.  The overcast at Porterville was just 300 feet.  The fog was down on the deck at Visalia with a report of ¼ mile visibility, ½ mile at Fresno, and ¾ of a mile at Madera.  Temperature forecasting will be somewhat of a nightmare today through Tuesday.  Where the low clouds and fog clear, temperatures will rise well into the 50s. Where the low overcast remains solid through the day, highs will only range in the mid to upper 40s.

 

In the broad picture, a flat zone of high pressure stretches from the eastern pacific across California and into the Great Basin.  At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Basin, generating an off shore flow.  Typically this pattern is ideal for trapping plenty of moisture on the valley floor.

 

The next overall change in the pattern will occur Wednesday as the first of two systems moves through the Pacific Northwest and northern and central California.  Wednesday’s event appears dry but some models have upped the ante a bit for a chance of showers Thursday so we’ll reflect that in this morning’s forecast.

 

Following the cold frontal passage Thursday, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will park just off shore while a low pressure system dives southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest Saturday then into the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada.  This pattern certainly doesn’t pose much of a rain threat for the valley, but there will be a chance of snow showers over the high Sierra.  A north/northwest flow will develop between the low in the Great Basin and high pressure just off shore, maintaining fairly cool temperatures but certainly nothing unusual for early January.

 

Models for the first half of next week continue to show weather systems generally moving into the interior west and bypassing central California.

 

Forecast: Fog and low overcast through Tuesday with partial afternoon clearing in some areas.  Widespread fog and low clouds Wednesday morning.  variable cloudiness Wednesday afternoon through Friday.  There will be a chance of showers Thursday through Thursday evening.  Partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 53/33/54/36/55 Reedley 53/34/58/38/54 Dinuba 51/33/58/35/53
Porterville 51/35/54/35/54 Lindsay 51/33/58/33/55 Delano 52/35/52/36/55
Bakersfield 52/38/55/38/53 Taft 57/39/57/40/54 Arvin 56/36/56/37/53
Lamont 55/35/55/37/55 Pixley 52/34/55/34/54 Tulare 52/33/54/34/54
Woodlake 53/34/58/35/54 Hanford 53/35/54/35/55 Orosi 53/33/58/34/53

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Chance of showers

41/53

Friday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

54/35

Saturday

AM fog/partly cloudy

34/58

Sunday

Patchy fog/mostly cloudy

37/58

Monday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

34/57

 

Two Week Outlook: January 13 through January 19:  This model is indicating a much higher than average risk of below average temperatures during this time frame with the possibility of precipitation from time to time.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday night.  Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night and more than likely Wednesday, as well.  Models are a bit more bullish on the strength of a system moving through late Wednesday night and Thursday.  In fact, a reasonable chance of light showers has been added to the forecast.  If precipitation does occur, only light amounts are expected with most locations recording .10 or less.  Dry weather will return later Thursday night and will last through the weekend.  My confidence is not as high as I would like for the weekend as a storm from the Gulf of Alaska moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin.  If current models have a good grip on the situation, the low will slide into Nevada just to the east of the Sierra Nevada, resulting in dry weather with the chance of snow showers over the high country.  For now, the pattern appears active the first half of next week for the interior U.S., essentially bypassing the west coast.

 

Frost Discussion:  Widespread fog and low clouds maintained above freezing conditions this morning throughout the citrus belt.  It appears that will again be the case for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Stay tuned, however, for the afternoon report.  It’s possible clearing could occur this afternoon in most areas, resulting in radiational cooling, at least until fog reforms in the middle of the night.  if this solution comes to pass, low 30s would be fairly widespread in colder locations.  My feeling is, though, that the valley will be sealed in by a low overcast, possibly lowering to the valley floor after midnight in some areas.

 

Two weather systems will move through: one Tuesday and one Wednesday.  cloud cover will maintain above freezing conditions.  From Friday morning and on through next week, any morning with generally clear skies will see local areas of frost in colder locations.  The coldest possible solution would be 29 to 31 degrees in unprotected low lying locations.  Even though medium range models continue to indicate below average temperatures all the way through the 19th, there is no pattern out there on models that would suggest a serious cold weather episode will occur.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

Af

Mcfarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea pot dome

Af

Lindsay

32

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

33

Belridge

32

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 65%/100%

Actual Humidity range January 5, 2020: Delano, 100%/100% Porterville, 98%/87%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .41, Blackwell Corner .35, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .30, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano 45

Record Temperatures: 73/17. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 927 -310

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 49.1 +5.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 2.88 season. or -.95.  Month to Date: .00 -.36

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.59, or +.44.  Month to Date: .00 -.19

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 432,  Parlier 499,  Arvin 355, Shafter 407, Stratford 416, Delano 482, Lindcove 549, Porterville 775

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:12  Sunset: 4:58 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:46

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  59 /  42 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  59 /  47 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  57 /  42 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  59 /  40 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1532 /  63 /  41 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  48 /  41 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  47 /  43 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  47 /  36 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1550 /  51 /  48 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.33    84    6.03   117     5.14    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.23    72    4.64   104     4.46    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    4.96   122    4.06   100     4.06    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.26    53    3.20    75     4.29    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    2.88    75    2.63    69     3.83    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    2.31    64    2.10    58     3.62    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.59   120    1.40    65     2.15     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.10    60    1.57    85     1.84     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.06   118    4.91   114     4.30    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.01   147    3.97    97     4.08    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.16    93    3.59    80     4.47    13.95

 

 

Next report: January 6/PM