We will be out of the office Thursday morning, January 9. We’ll return early afternoon. Reports will resume at that time.
Thank you, John and Trudy
January 8, 2020
Summary: As of 7:30am, almost every frost station was reporting 42 degrees with a few a degree higher and a handful a degree lower. Even the larger city weather stations, such as Fresno and Bakersfield, were also at 42. Once a strong warm air inversion sets up and fog and low clouds develop, uniformity from one location to the next can be amazingly consistent. The question of the day is whether or not any clearing occurs this afternoon ahead of a fast moving low pressure system currently west of British Columbia. It will dive through central California Thursday morning with a reasonably good chance of light showers. Showers will rapidly diminish from north to south Thursday afternoon. A strong northwesterly flow behind this system should bring sunshine back to the region Friday, although areas of morning fog and low clouds are likely in some areas.
Friday through Friday night will be dry then another weaker wave of low pressure will move from northwest to southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin. Most of the precipitation from this system will be east of the Sierra Nevada. Another low will follow a similar path Saturday into Sunday. For now, it appears there is a chance of showers then, mainly from Fresno County north.
More impulses will follow a similar path between upper level high pressure off shore and a big cold trough of low pressure over the interior west.
Beginning Wednesday of next week, another low will slide southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and eventually northern California. This could be a major winter storm for central California, both in quantity and the potential for strong gusty winds between a deep low and higher pressure to the southeast. Most models indicate this will be a very active pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday. beginning the 20th, some models are indicating what could potentially be a very cold weather pattern. In some ways, it resembles a freeze pattern. Since this is the first day this feature has popped up, we’ll study the situation closely as we move through mid January.
Forecast: Low overcast and fog today with some clearing possible during the afternoon, especially along the foothills and possibly Kern County. Where it clears, temperatures will be in the 50s. Where it does not, expect mid to upper 40s. increasing higher clouds tonight with a small chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely Thursday morning with a slight chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Areas of fog and low clouds Saturday through Sunday night. otherwise it will be partly cloudy. A chance of showers Monday through Tuesday. Becoming likely Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/41/52/37/54 | Reedley 48/40/51/38/53 | Dinuba 48/39/52/39/53 | |
| Porterville 48/40/53/38/54 | Lindsay 49/39/52/38/53 | Delano 47/40/53/41/55 | |
| Bakersfield 49/42/52/41/56 | Taft 50/42/53/41/56 | Arvin 49/42/52/40/55 | |
| Lamont 49/40/52/39/54 | Pixley 48/39/52/38/54 | Tulare 47/40/53/38/54 | |
| Woodlake 48/41/52/39/55 | Hanford 48/41/52/38/54 | Orosi 49/39/52/38/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 33/53 |
Sunday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 35/55 |
Monday
Chance of showers 35/55 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 39/57 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 38/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 15 through January 21: This model is indicating a much higher than average risk of below average temperatures during this time frame with the possibility of precipitation from time to time.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds today will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through tonight. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly in western Fresno and Kings counties. Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The chance of light showers Thursday morning is actually fairly high all the way up and down the valley from a fast moving and fairly weak storm with origins in the Gulf of Alaska. Look for snow to drop to 3,500 feet in the surrounding mountains. There’s a minimal chance of light showers mainly near the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountain foothills Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect dry weather Thursday night and on through the weekend. Any chance of rain Saturday and Sunday will be confined mainly to the Sierra Nevada.
There is a minimal chance of light showers Monday through Tuesday. Once we get to Wednesday and beyond, the chance of significant precipitation will increase as most models continue to portray a major winter storm off the Oregon/Northern California coast, especially Thursday through Saturday of next week. The possibility of significant amounts of rain and mountain snow is certainly there.
We will be out of the office Thursday morning, January 9. We’ll return early afternoon. Reports will resume at that time.
Thank you, John and Trudy
Frost Discussion: Expect above to slightly above freezing temperatures tonight and again Friday morning. Low 30s are possible Saturday and Sunday mornings, that’s if skies decide to clear. However, with disturbances continuing to run from northwest to southeast just to the east of the Sierra Nevada, cloud cover may actually maintain above freezing conditions. For Monday through Wednesday of next week, expect readings to continue to be above freezing as a major storm approaches.
Models this morning for the period beginning the 20th look a bit ominous as a semi freeze pattern shows up. The eastern Pacific high will build far to the north of the arctic circle while a low develops over southern California and the southwestern U.S, This pattern would transport modified arctic air into the U.S. The 20th is still way off but I like to give a heads up so you can be aware of at least possible challenges.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 80%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 75%/100%
Actual Humidity range January 7, 2020: Delano, 100%/100% Porterville, 98%/90%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .32, Parlier .37, Blackwell Corner .33, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .25, Delano .28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 72/22. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 969 -310
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.6 +3.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 2.88 season. or -1.09. Month to Date: .00 -.50
Since Oct 1, 2019 Bakersfield: 2.59, or +.37. Month to Date: .00 -.26
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 466, Parlier 532, Arvin 397, Shafter 450, Stratford 447, Delano 520, Lindcove 590, Porterville 816
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 Sunset: 5:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 45 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 45 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 46 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 46 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 47 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 47 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 45 / 39 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 48 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 48 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 44 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.33 82 6.92 130 5.31 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.23 70 4.97 108 4.62 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.96 116 4.81 113 4.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.26 50 3.54 79 4.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.88 73 3.19 80 3.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.31 61 2.39 63 3.80 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.59 117 1.46 66 2.22 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 58 1.58 83 1.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.06 113 5.08 114 4.46 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.01 141 4.43 104 4.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.16 90 3.76 81 4.63 13.95
Next report: January 8/PM