trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 11, 2020
Summary: It is a mix of sunshine and some cloud cover out there this afternoon. Clouds are generally based at between 3,000 and 5,000 feet. The latest weak wave of low pressure moved rapidly through the Pacific Northwest early this morning and has already progressed into eastern Nevada and Utah. Right on its heels is another low center just west of the British Columbia coast which will follow an almost identical path, possibly spreading some light showers down to Tahoe in the Sierra Nevada, but central California will remain precipitation free. Even though we remain in a northwest flow aloft, these systems are keeping a relatively cool air mass both at the surface and aloft. The latest freezing level has dropped back down to about 6,000 feet and I noted Sandberg at 4,100 feet is six degrees cooler than 24 hours ago while Blue Canyon at 5,600 feet is 11 degrees off of yesterday’s readings.
Theoretically, upslope clouds should be developing against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. So far, that has not occurred, but it may during the overnight hours. Where skies remain clear tonight, local areas of frost will be prevalent, which is discussed below.
Yet another fast moving system will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California, on Tuesday. Models continue to nudge the line of these systems further north, so it appears doubtful whether precipitation will reach as far south as the valley outside of some showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. A temporary wedge of high pressure will move in from the west Wednesday. for about the fifth day in a row, models are showing a strong low developing west of the Washington coast Wednesday. it’s projected to dig a trough into central California Thursday and Friday. This seems to be our best shot at significant precipitation for the next 10 days as most models for the period beginning next weekend and into the following week are showing dry conditions.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight with patchy fog developing after midnight. Partly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday with patchy night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday with patchy night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. rain at times Thursday and Thursday night. showers likely Friday morning. becoming mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/52/33/53 | Reedley 32/53/32/53 | Dinuba 31/52/32/53 | |
| Porterville 32/53/32/54 | Lindsay 31/53/32/53 | Delano 33/53/33/54 | |
| Bakersfield 39/54/39/53 | Taft 40/53/40/54 | Arvin 33/53/34/54 | |
| Lamont 34/53/34/54 | Pixley 32/53/32/54 | Tulare 31/52/32/53 | |
| Woodlake 32/52/32/53 | Hanford 34/52/34/53 | Orosi 31/52/32/53 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Monday night and, if current trends continue on models, through Wednesday night. it had at one time appeared that a fast moving system would sweep through California Tuesday. However, latest model runs continue to nudge this system further north. Models, though, have not backed off on a strong Pacific winter storm off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday with a trough digging southward into northern and central California Thursday into Friday. This may be our only shot at a decent precipitation event for the next ten days as models are showing a strong high building over the eastern Pacific and into the western one-third of the U.S. next weekend and into the following week.
Frost Discussion: Where skies remain clear tonight, widespread low to mid 30s are again likely. It’s possible higher clouds may move in just before sunrise, but that is still plenty of time for the radiational cooling process to lower temperatures into the low to mid 30s, similar to this morning’s readings. There’s a fairly robust northwest flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere which may generate some upslope clouds in Kern and Tulare Counties later on tonight, but that by no means is a given.
Coldest overnight lows tonight will dip down to 29 to 30 or so with most flat terrain locations ranging from 31 to 36. Similar conditions can be expected Monday morning and possibly even Tuesday morning as it now appears the next system will track further north than previously thought.
Clouds and precipitation will maintain above freezing conditions Wednesday through Friday. After the Thursday/Friday system moves through, a westerly flow will develop over central California, continuing this winter’s trends of generally above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 12/morning