trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 12, 2020
Summary: We have somewhat of a potpourri of conditions out there this morning. in Kern County, we have upslope clouds banked up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. There are other pockets of low clouds and fog and increasing higher clouds over the central part of the valley from the latest fast moving low pressure system which will move through the Pacific Northwest today and quickly into the Great Basin tonight. Another weak wave of low pressure will follow a similar path Monday and yet a third Tuesday. All of these systems will have the capability of bringing light showers over northern California, mainly north of a Bay Area/Yosemite line. The flow aloft during this entire period will be out of the northwest which will ensure seasonal temperatures.
A weak upwelling ridge of high pressure will move through Wednesday then a low pressure system will rapidly intensify off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. it will drop a trough of low pressure into California Thursday and Thursday night. I still believe this will be our one best chance of recording significant precipitation for the next week to ten days. A ridge of upper level high pressure will fill in behind this system Friday and will dominate our pattern next weekend for a return to dry weather. The challenges then will be regarding areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings.
Some models indicate the approach of a system from the west about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, but for now we’ll forecast dry weather for that time frame and see if any trends develop.
Forecast: Areas of low clouds and fog this morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy through Wednesday. pockets of low clouds and fog can be expected each morning through Wednesday. increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. rain likely Thursday and Thursday night with a chance of showers for a time Friday morning. mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with areas of low clouds and fog Saturday morning. mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Sunday, but with a considerable amount of fog and low clouds Sunday morning.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/32/53/32/54 | Reedley 54/32/54/33/54 | Dinuba 52/31/53/32/53 | |
| Porterville 55/32/54/32/54 | Lindsay 54/31/53/31/53 | Delano 55/33/55/33/54 | |
| Bakersfield 54/38/54/38/54 | Taft 55/41/54/40/54 | Arvin 53/35/53/35/54 | |
| Lamont 55/35/54/36/55 | Pixley 54/32/54/32/53 | Tulare 52/31/52/32/53 | |
| Woodlake 54/32/53/32/53 | Hanford 54/33/54/34/53 | Orosi 54/31/53/32/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/54 |
Thursday
Rain likely 41/55 |
Friday
AM showers possible 34/51 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 33/54 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 34/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 19 through January 25: This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west during this time frame, resulting in generally above average daytime temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain: More than likely, dry weather will continue through Wednesday evening. There will be a chance of rain late Wednesday night, however a significant winter storm will spread rain and mountain snow over central California Thursday and Thursday night with a chance of showers lasting into Friday morning. unfortunately, this does appear to be a one storm event as models show upper level high pressure building in from the eastern Pacific and into the western states next weekend and into the early part of next week.
Some models do show a weather system approaching from the west about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, but I need to see some kind of trend develop before adding precipitation to the forecast.
Frost Discussion: The pattern which has resulted in widespread low to mid 30s the past few mornings will likely continue right into the middle part of the week. There will be periods of mid and high level clouds streaming in from weather systems passing to our north, however on any night through Wednesday morning where skies are generally clear, low to mid 30s can be expected with isolated upper 20s in river bottom and similar locations.
Above freezing conditions will prevail Thursday and Friday due to rain and cloud cover. Low to mid 30s are again possible this coming weekend as the air mass swinging in behind the late week storm is seasonably cold.
Nothing on the weather horizon suggesting a pattern which would be conducive for particularly cold weather.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31` |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/100%
Actual Humidity range January 11, 2020: Delano, 100%/70% Porterville, 99%/64%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .42, Parlier .22, Blackwell Corner .26, Arvin .25, Orange Cove .21, Porterville .17, Delano .19. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 67/20. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1042 -319
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.1 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.10 season. or -1.15. Month to Date: .22 -.57
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.64, or +.27. Month to Date: .05 -.36
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 528, Parlier 592, Arvin 438, Shafter 499, Stratford 491, Delano 571, Lindcove 664, Porterville 900
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 Sunset: 5:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 57 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / 57 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 49 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 55 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.02 4.68 83 7.01 124 5.67 14.06
MODESTO T 3.48 70 4.97 100 4.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.17 110 4.83 103 4.68 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.57 53 3.74 77 4.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.10 73 3.34 78 4.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.61 63 2.60 63 4.16 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.64 111 1.57 66 2.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 53 1.58 76 2.07 5.18
SALINAS T 5.14 107 5.12 107 4.80 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.04 130 4.82 104 4.63 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.25 85 4.78 96 4.99 13.95
Next report: January 13/morning