trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 13, 2020
Summary: This morning is very similar to the past few. The winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere remain out of the northwest as weak disturbances move through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region. The main impact on central California is for the continuation of near average temperatures and upslope clouds that continue to develop along the Sierra Nevada foothills, mainly in Tulare County, and against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will continue.
A fast moving wedge of upper level high pressure will swing through Wednesday ahead of a rapidly deepening low pressure system developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The parent low will remain well to our north as it moves inland Thursday. However, the associated cold front and trough of low pressure will move through California at the same time with widespread precipitation Thursday and Thursday night. A moist west/northwest flow of air will move in behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning and lift should do an efficient job in dumping some heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada.
Unfortunately, this will be a one storm event as models continue to consistently project high pressure building in from the eastern Pacific beginning Friday and lasting through at least the early part of next week. Some models are depicting a low pressure system approaching from the west about Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week, but it’s still questionable whether precipitation will occur. Most of the models are now indicating a big ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and western U.S. after the middle of next week for what may be the beginning of a prolonged period of dry weather. This means fog and low level clouds would be the main challenges.
Forecast: Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy through Wednesday morning. mostly clear Wednesday afternoon and evening. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. rain likely at times Thursday and Thursday night. lighter showers are possible for a time Friday morning. otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy Friday through Saturday morning. areas of fog and low clouds will also be possible Saturday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/32/54/32/54 | Reedley 53/32/54/32/55 | Dinuba 52/30/54/31/53 | |
| Porterville 53/32/54/32/56 | Lindsay 54/30/54/31/55 | Delano 53/32/54/33/56 | |
| Bakersfield 54/38/55/38/59 | Taft 55/40/55/41/57 | Arvin 53/36/55/36/58 | |
| Lamont 55/34/55/35/57 | Pixley 54/31/54/32/55 | Tulare 53/30/54/31/54 | |
| Woodlake 53/32/54/32/54 | Hanford 54/33/54/33/56 | Orosi 54/30/54/31/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Rain likely 42/55 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 35/54 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 33/54 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 33/55 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 34/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 20 through January 26: This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west during this time frame, resulting in generally above average daytime temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest by late morning at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, continuing through Thursday night.
Rain: For the past week, Thursday has been illustrated by models to be the day where rain would be widespread throughout central California. That has not changed as it appears a fairly robust cold front will move down the valley Thursday morning with widespread showers Thursday afternoon and night. it’s a bit early still for trying to outguess rain totals, but it appears north of Kern County could pick up .25 to .50 with about .25 or less over the valley portion of Kern County. Since this is a robust winter storm, and winds aloft will be out of the west/southwest for much of the event, rain shadows along the west side and the south valley will definitely come into play.
Dry weather will return Friday and will continue through the weekend and at least through Monday night. some, but certainly not all, models are showing a weaker trough moving in about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. At this point, we’ll continue with a dry forecast for that time frame until better model information becomes available. Models for late next week and beyond all show a dry weather pattern.
Frost Discussion: Fowler dipped down to 28 degrees this morning as of 7:00am and east Clovis 29. All other reporting locations were in the low to mid 30s.
I don’t foresee much change tonight or even for Wednesday morning. upslope clouds will continue to regenerate from time to time along the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. Where cloud cover is more dominant the next two nights, readings will generally range from 33 to 38. Lower 30s will be dominant elsewhere except in a few riverbottom and like locations which could dip into the upper 20s for short durations.
All locations will be freezing Thursday and Friday mornings and more than likely Saturday, as well, due to heavy cloud cover. We may see a return to low to mid 30s Sunday and Monday of next week, but the bottom line is the flow at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be out of the west or west/northwest following Thursday’s storm event. This will continue to block polar air masses from moving southward into California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 12, 2020: Delano, 100%/69% Porterville, 99%/64%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .44, Parlier .20, Blackwell Corner .28, Arvin .29, Orange Cove .24, Porterville .22, Delano .24. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 50, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 70/19. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1063 -318
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.8 +2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.10 season. or -1.24. Month to Date: .22 -.65
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.64, or +.24. Month to Date: .05 -.39
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 543, Parlier 609, Arvin 446, Shafter 514, Stratford 508, Delano 586, Lindcove 680, Porterville 919
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 Sunset: 5:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DHM / 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 53 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.68 81 7.01 122 5.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.48 69 4.97 98 5.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.17 108 4.83 101 4.79 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.57 52 3.74 75 4.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.10 71 3.34 77 4.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.61 62 2.61 62 4.24 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.64 110 1.58 66 2.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 52 1.58 75 2.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.14 105 5.12 105 4.89 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.04 128 5.09 108 4.72 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.25 84 5.06 100 5.08 13.95
Next report: January 13/afternoon