trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 14, 2020
Summary: A dry cold front is currently moving down the valley. Some sprinkles have occurred as far south as a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. The push of air behind the system is slightly colder than the current air mass so we may see a few more locations dip into the upper 20s tonight which is discussed in the frost summary below.
Tonight and Wednesday, a weak ridge of fast moving upper level high pressure will move through, maintaining fairly decent weather Wednesday with the exception of the usual morning low clouds and fog. Thursday is still the target day for a good precipitation event for central California. A low center will intensify off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and Wednesday night, driving a strong cold front through central California Thursday followed by its associated trough of cold low pressure. That trough will lower snow levels to roughly 4,000 feet. This system will be a fast mover, so precipitation will end by early Friday morning followed by a ridge of high pressure which will build in from the west over the weekend. Two weak disturbances will ride over the top of this high through the middle of next week: one on Sunday and another Tuesday. Models indicate the Tuesday disturbance will spread some showers into northern California, however a flat zone of upper level high pressure will keep central and southern California’s weather dry.
With the addition of significant rainfall on the valley floor Thursday and Thursday night, and building high pressure over the weekend and beyond, the main challenge will be increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog and low clouds. It may get to the point where some areas may not clear even during the afternoons.
After midweek next week, a stronger high is projected to build in from the eastern Pacific, continuing the dry pattern with lots of low clouds and fog on the valley floor and pleasant weather elsewhere.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today and tonight, possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare counties into Wednesday morning. mostly clear Wednesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with a chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely at times Thursday and Thursday night with lingering showers possible Friday morning, mainly near the foothills. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with areas of fog possible Saturday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Tuesday with widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/31/55/40/54 | Reedley 55/31/56/41/56 | Dinuba 54/30/54/39/54 | |
| Porterville 55/31/54/40/56 | Lindsay 55/30/54/39/55 | Delano 56/31/58/41/58 | |
| Bakersfield 57/37/58/42/60 | Taft 57/41/58/40/60 | Arvin 56/33/58/41/59 | |
| Lamont 56/33/58/41/60 | Pixley 56/30/54/39/57 | Tulare 54/30/54/39/55 | |
| Woodlake 54/31/54/40/54 | Hanford 55/32/54/41/55 | Orosi 54/30/54/39/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 34/55 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 33/53 |
Sunday
Am fog/pm sun 33/54 |
Monday
Am fog/pm sun 34/53 |
Tuesday
Am fog/partly cloudy 35/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 21 through January 27: This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west during this time frame, resulting in generally above average daytime temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday. winds Wednesday night and Thursday morning will increase out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts to around 25 MPH possible. Winds Thursday and Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, decreasing after midnight. Winds Friday will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH.
Rain: The chance of precipitation will begin to increase after midnight Wednesday, becoming likely at times Thursday through Thursday night. it still appears rainfall amounts from this event will range between .25 and .50 north of Kern County and generally east of Hwy 99. In Kern County and along the west side, the typical winter storm rain shadows will apply with amounts possibly upwards to .33 along the west side and less than .25 over the valley portion of Kern County.
Showers will linger into Friday morning, mainly along the foothills, but generally speaking, Friday will be mostly dry. Dry weather will continue this weekend and, if models are accurate, dry conditions will prevail next week.
Frost Discussion: Sanger, Exeter, west Porterville, and McFarland had all dipped to 30 degrees as of 6:30. Ivanhoe had dipped to 29. All other locations were between 31 and 34 degrees.
A fast moving cold front is currently dissipating as it moves down the valley. The air mass behind this system is marginally colder so a few more locations may dip down into the upper 20s tonight. However, with a northwest push of air behind the frontal system, upslope clouds may generate along the Sierra Nevada foothills and bank up against the Tehachapi Mountains tonight and Wednesday morning. If this happens, slightly above freezing conditions would prevail for those areas underneath the cloud deck. Where it remains clear, though, most flat terrain groves will range between 30 and 34 degrees with unprotected low lying locations down to 28 to 30 or so.
Thursday and Friday mornings will be above freezing due to heavy cloud cover and precipitation. Each morning from Saturday and beyond has the potential for readings in the low to mid 30s. with developing high pressure dominating the situation from the weekend and beyond, increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds are possible. It may get to the point where the fog lifts into a low overcast and may be difficult to clear out even during the afternoon. If this occurs, above freezing conditions can be expected each night. for now, there is absolutely nothing on longer range models suggesting polar air masses will get anywhere near California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
Mcfarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 13, 2020: Delano, 100%/60% Porterville, 99%/56%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .NA, Parlier .20, Blackwell Corner .30, Arvin .29, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .23, Delano .25. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 50, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 68/22. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1085 -316
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.5 +2.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.10 season. or -1.31. Month to Date: .22 -.72
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.64, or +.20. Month to Date: .05 -.43
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 558, Parlier 627, Arvin 457, Shafter 528, Stratford 521, Delano 600, Lindcove 698, Porterville 938
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 Sunset: 5:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 31 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 55 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 4.68 80 7.01 120 5.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.48 68 4.97 97 5.14 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.17 106 4.83 99 4.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.57 51 3.74 74 5.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.10 70 3.34 76 4.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.61 60 2.61 60 4.32 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.64 108 1.58 65 2.44 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 51 1.58 73 2.15 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.14 103 5.12 103 4.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.04 125 5.09 106 4.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.25 82 5.06 98 5.17 13.95
Next report: January 14/afternoon