trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 13, 2020
Summary: Skies are generally clear throughout central california with the exception of some lower level clouds along the Sierra Nevada foothills. To our north, clouds are rapidly increasing over northern California ahead of a trough of low pressure which is moving into the Pacific Northwest. Light showers have spread as far south as a Ukiah/Redding line and, as the system advances southeastward, it will lose its dynamics with possibly a few light showers as far south as a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. Just like its predecessors, this system will dive into the Great Basin with the main impact on the valley being the possibility of upslope clouds along the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains late tonight and Tuesday morning.
A very temporary wedge of high pressure will move inland Wednesday for dry, stable weather, but with areas of fog and low clouds. I see no reason to change the forecast of rain for Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front advances down the valley followed quickly by its associated trough of low pressure Thursday afternoon and night. lingering showers are possible for a time Friday morning, mainly along the foothills of Kern and Tulare Counties.
Over the weekend, upper level high pressure will build into California via the eastern Pacific Ocean. A weak weather system will clip northern California Sunday with little impact here then another weak system will slide through the Pacific Northwest and northern California about Tuesday, but a rather flat zone of upper level high pressure will keep conditions dry from this weekend through the middle of next week with areas of fog and low clouds being the primarily problems.
Even stronger high pressure shows up on models after next Wednesday, so this storm moving through this coming Thursday and Thursday night is our best shot at significant rain for a while.
Forecast: Mostly clear this evening. Partly cloudy after midnight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday with clearing during the afternoon. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday with some lingering clouds, mainly over Kern County. Rain, likely at times, Thursday and Thursday night. lingering showers for a time Friday morning, mainly near the foothills. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. mostly clear to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/54/32/55 | Reedley 31/54/32/55 | Dinuba 31/53/32/54 | |
| Porterville 32/55/32/57 | Lindsay 31/55/32/56 | Delano 32/55/33/57 | |
| Bakersfield 38/56/38/58 | Taft 41/55/40/58 | Arvin 34/55/34/58 | |
| Lamont 34/55/35/58 | Pixley 32/54/32/56 | Tulare 31/53/32/54 | |
| Woodlake 32/55/32/56 | Hanford 33/54/34/56 | Orosi 31/53/31/54 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours. Winds Wednesday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 10 to15 MPH Thursday morning with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Winds Thursday afternoon and night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing after midnight.
Rain: For the past week, we have pegged this coming Thursday as the day for possibly significant precipitation for central California. This time around, models have been amazingly consistent and continue to be so. Rain will overspread the valley Thursday morning, turning showery Thursday night with lingering showers Friday morning, mainly near the foothills. For now, it appears real estate north of Kern County and along the east side of the valley could pick up .25 to .50 with perhaps upwards of .25 along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties. A tenth or two is possible over the valley portion of Kern County, where rain shadows will be their strongest. Dry weather will quickly return Friday, continuing through the weekend. For now, next week also appears to be dry, although a couple of weak systems will clip northern California, one on Sunday and the other Tuesday. For now, though, it doesn’t appear they’ll make it down this far south.
Frost Discussion: Tonight’s outcome will be determined by how increasing clouds moving into central California hold together from a weather system which will spread at least sprinkles as far south as about Merced County. If the cloud cover does not dissipate, mid to upper 30s will be likely. If the clouds are too sparse, then widespread low to mid 30s will prevail, similar to what we’ve experienced the past several nights. A few upper 20s are possible in those traditional cold spots. Similar conditions can be expected Wednesday morning, although there is a greater possibility of fog and low clouds, but probably not enough to interfere with the radiational cooling process.
Thursday and Friday will be above freezing due to heavy cloud cover and precipitation. We may very well find ourselves back with the low to mid 30 temps Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft will prevent significantly cold air masses from moving into central California for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31` |
Lindcove
31` |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 14/morning