trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 15, 2020
Summary: Satellite imagery shows a very impressive low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This system has the classic strong winter storm signature of the appearance of a cinnamon roll. That storm will pound the Pacific Northwest with strong winds and heavy rain and will drive a cold front through central California Thursday afternoon and evening. Models have slowed down the timing of the onset of rain for the valley. It appears the main event will be late Thursday afternoon through the late evening hours when a strong cold front moves through followed by a fast moving trough of low pressure. Models show this system moving quickly into the intermountain west Friday, ending precipitation for the valley.
Upslope conditions along the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains Friday will continue snow showers there.
From Saturday and on through the middle of next week, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific Ocean, extending inland through central and southern California. The storm track will continue to ride over the top of this high and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. One fast moving system will spread showers over parts of northern California Saturday then a potentially stronger system could spread showers into central California from mainly Fresno County northward Tuesday afternoon and night. There is a great deal of differences on models regarding timing and strength, but generally speaking, for central California, it appears unimpressive.
After Wednesday, a stronger ridge will build further north with the storm track clear up into British Columbia and Washington state. Beyond that, models continue to look dry from central California south, so we’ll maintain a dry forecast for late next week through the following weekend.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning, otherwise it will be mostly clear. A mix of high clouds and sunshine this afternoon. Increasing cloudiness tonight. a chance of rain by late Thursday morning. Rain will become likely Thursday afternoon through the late evening hours Thursday. A chance of showers after midnight. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday through Saturday morning with areas of fog and low clouds possible Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night with a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Wednesday after areas of low clouds and fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/38/56/36/53 | Reedley 55/36/57/35/53 | Dinuba 54/36/57/35/52 | |
| Porterville 56/35/57/37/53 | Lindsay 56/36/57/34/53 | Delano 56/35/57/36/52 | |
| Bakersfield 58/40/62/40/54 | Taft 57/41/61/39/55 | Arvin 58/36/62/39/53 | |
| Lamont 58/37/61/40/52 | Pixley 56/35/58/35/52 | Tulare 54/34/57/35/53 | |
| Woodlake 55/34/57/36/53 | Hanford 55/37/57/37/53 | Orosi 54/34/57/34/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Am fog/partly cloudy 32/53 |
Sunday
Am fog/partly cloudy 32/54 |
Monday
Am fog/partly cloudy 33/57 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 41/61 |
Wednesday
Am fog/partly cloudy 37/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 22 through January 28: This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west during this time frame, resulting in generally above average daytime temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds today will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds tonight will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Expect light to near calm winds to return Friday and Saturday.
Rain: It appears the main onset of rain will not arrive until late Thursday morning, at the earliest with heaviest precipitation ahead and along the cold front which will move quickly through the valley later Thursday afternoon or evening. This storm is extremely fast moving, but even so, the dynamics ahead of and along the frontal band are fairly strong so I still believe .25 to .50 is possible, generally east of Hwy 99 and north of Kern County. Along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties, .25 seems plausible. Strong winter storms typically have strong rain shadows so Kern County will probably record less than .25 from this event. Rain will end late Thursday night with dry weather Friday through the weekend.
A weaker low will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday and Tuesday night for a small chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward. From Wednesday and beyond, a big ridge of high pressure will build in from the west for dry weather. Most models also point to dry weather for next weekend and into the following week, however there are differences so stay tuned.
Frost Discussion: East Clovis, Sanger, and Fowler each dipped to 28 degrees this morning while Reedley came in at 29. In Tulare County, most locations were in the low to mid 30s where upslope clouds helped moderate the situation. Some locations in Kern County were in the lower 40s due to persistent cloud cover banked up against the Tehachapi Mountains.
For tonight, all locations will be above freezing as cloud cover advancing ahead of a fast moving cold front will move in during the later night hours. Cloud cover will also maintain above freezing conditions Friday morning. most locations Saturday and Sunday will be above freezing, however lower 30s are possible each morning, depending upon the fog situation and possible cloud cover from systems moving inland to our north.
The dominant flow in the upper atmosphere this weekend and through next week will be out of the west, blocking bitterly cold arctic air masses from moving into California for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/85%
Actual Humidity range January 14, 2020: Delano, 100%/60% Porterville, 99%/55%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .NA, Parlier .24, Blackwell Corner .32, Arvin .35, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .27, Delano .30. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 50, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 75/21. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1107 -314
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.3 +2.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.10 season. or -1.39. Month to Date: .22 -.80
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.64, or +.16. Month to Date: .05 -.47
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 569, Parlier 640, Arvin 466, Shafter 538, Stratford 535, Delano 611, Lindcove 710, Porterville 955
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 5:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:55
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 37 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 53 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 57 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.03 4.71 79 7.01 118 5.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.03 3.51 67 5.00 96 5.23 13.11
MERCED 0.01 5.18 104 4.87 98 4.98 12.50
MADERA T 2.57 50 3.79 74 5.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.10 69 3.45 77 4.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.61 59 2.70 61 4.40 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.64 106 1.59 64 2.48 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 50 1.63 74 2.20 5.18
SALINAS T 5.14 102 5.13 101 5.06 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.04 123 5.31 108 4.91 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.25 81 5.24 99 5.27 13.95
Next report: January 15/afternoon