trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 15, 2020
Summary: Skies are generally clear this afternoon and will remain so for much of the night. it now appears the cloud shield from an advancing cold front will not arrive until around sunrise or thereafter. The freezing level over Oakland this morning was 4,400 feet while down at Vandenberg, the freezing level was 10,300 feet, indicating warmer air was moving in from the southwest ahead of that cold front. Satellite imagery shows a powerful low off the Oregon/Washington coast with a warm front entering northern California and a cold front extending from near the central Oregon coast southwestward out to sea.
It looks like we will remain dry through Thursday morning as most models don’t show precipitation spreading into central California until early afternoon, at the earliest. The heaviest precipitation will occur from late Thursday afternoon through the late evening hours. A front and its associated trough of low pressure will quickly move through and into the interior west as showers taper off by sunrise Friday. Upslope clouds will form along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains Friday with cloud cover probably lasting well into Saturday morning.
Upper level high pressure will take over this weekend, meaning areas of night and morning fog and low clouds will be the primary concerns. Models this afternoon are a bit more bullish in showing an elongated trough of low pressure in the eastern Pacific moving across northern and central California Monday night and Tuesday morning for what now appears to be a reasonable chance of showers, especially north of Kern County. By the middle of next week, another ridge of upper level high pressure will follow for at least several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight. becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. Rain spreading southeastward Thursday afternoon through the late evening hours. Showers for a time after midnight. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday through Saturday morning with areas of low clouds and fog possible Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. increasing cloudiness Monday after morning fog burns off. A chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday morning. partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with areas of fog and low clouds Wednesday morning.
Short Term:
Madera 33/57/36/53 | Reedley 32/57/37/53 | Dinuba 31/56/35/552 | |
Porterville 32/58/37/54 | Lindsay 31/58/35/53 | Delano 32/59/38/52 | |
Bakersfield 39/61/40/53 | Taft 40/60/40/54 | Arvin 34/60/38/52 | |
Lamont 35/58/39/53 | Pixley 32/59/38/53 | Tulare 31/57/37/52 | |
Woodlake 32/58/38/53 | Hanford 34/58/39/53 | Orosi 31/57/36/52 |
Winds: Winds before midnight will be generally light and variable. After midnight, winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH. Later Thursday morning, winds will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with light to near calm winds returning Friday through Saturday.
Rain: It appears now the rain will not begin to arrive until Thursday afternoon with the heaviest precipitation from late Thursday afternoon through the late evening hours with showers tapering off before sunrise Friday morning. this is a very fast moving system but even so, with a little luck, between .25 and .50 is possible north of Kern County along the east side of the valley with around .25 along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties and perhaps a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will prevail Friday and on through at least Monday morning.
Models are a bit bullish on a weather system that will stretch along the west coast Monday night and Tuesday morning. the dynamics may be such where light showers may spread over the valley, primarily north of Kern County. If precipitation does occur, no more than a tenth or two would be likely.
Dry weather will prevail Tuesday afternoon and last through the remainder of next week.
Frost Discussion: It’s possible the cloud shield ahead of a rapidly moving cold front will not arrive until sunrise or a little after, allowing radiational cooling to lower temperatures again into the low to mid 30s with isolated upper 20s in river bottom and similar locations. Most flat terrain locations should range from 30 to 34 or so. Plenty of cloud cover will maintain above freezing conditions Friday morning. the air mass swinging in behind the Thursday night storm is cold, but nothing unusual for mid January. Where skies clear, low to mid 30s are again possible Saturday with a greater risk Sunday and Monday. Another weather system may spread some light showers over the area Tuesday for above freezing conditions. The air mass for the second half of next week looks to be fairly mild with generally above freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
33 |
Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 16/morning