trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 16, 2020
Summary: A strong cold front was advancing down the valley as of 1:00pm. Precipitation had spread over Fresno County and much of Madera County. Doppler radar clearly depicts a band of heavy rain right along the frontal band. Sharp differences in pressure right along the front are generating strong gusty winds. At 1:00pm, both the Lemoore Naval Air Station and Madera were reporting gusts to 32 MPH and 30 MPH at the Fresno Air Terminal. Rain will continue to rapidly spread southward during the afternoon and early evening then taper off during the later evening hours. Showers will continue for a time after midnight with the action coming to an end by sunrise with the exception of the nearby mountains where showers will continue Friday morning due to upslope conditions.
Upslope clouds will develop late tonight through Friday along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains, so clearing, especially along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley, will be slow. Most locations will break into the sunshine Friday afternoon.
Upper level high pressure will quickly build in from the west Friday, generating enough of a warm air inversion for areas of fog and low clouds to develop through Monday morning with hazy sunshine in the afternoon. The high will shift into the intermountain west by late Monday as an elongated trough of low pressure approaches the coast from the west. Some models show a subtropical connection with this system, but others do not. At any rate, it’s becoming more and more likely that some precipitation will occur over the valley from later Monday night through Tuesday night.
Beginning Wednesday, another, stronger, ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west, this one stretching up into the Pacific Northwest and blocking the storm track from approaching California. However, the new two-week outlook for the 24th through the 30th is now leaning towards above average precipitation with generally average temperatures.
Forecast: Rain through the late evening hours, turning to showers which will taper off before sunrise. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday morning. partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday with areas of fog and/or low clouds during the night and morning hours. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely Tuesday and Tuesday night. becoming partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. mostly clear Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/53/32/55 | Reedley 33/52/32/54 | Dinuba 33/52/31/53 | |
| Porterville 36/53/32/56 | Lindsay 36/53/31/56 | Delano 37/54/32/57 | |
| Bakersfield 38/54/35/58 | Taft 38/53/39/58 | Arvin 38/54/34/58 | |
| Lamont 39/55/35/58 | Pixley 36/53/32/55 | Tulare 35/52/31/55 | |
| Woodlake 36/53/32/55 | Hanford 37/53/33/55 | Orosi 35/53/31/55 | |
Winds: Winds for a time this afternoon and early evening will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to near 35 MPH possible. Winds later this evening will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, diminishing by tonight. Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A band of heavy rain was advancing through Madera and Fresno Counties as of the time of this report. It will quickly spread over the remainder of the valley through the evening hours. Showers will taper off after midnight with dry weather returning Friday with a chance of lingering showers near the foothills for a time Friday morning. Rainfall amounts from this system still spear to be in the .25 to .50 range along the east side of the valley north of Kern County, possibly more than .25 on the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties, with less than .25 over the valley portion of Kern County. the weekend will be dry as will Monday, then a chance of showers will again show up after midnight Monday with rain becoming likely at times Tuesday and Tuesday night. some models show a high risk of precipitation from this event with the possibility of a subtropical connection. Others, though, don’t show that tap and indicate just light showers. For now, Wednesday through next weekend appear dry.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but at or slightly above in low lying, wind sheltered locations if it happens to clear for any length of time. Behind the cold front currently advancing through the valley, temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 40s in the northern San Joaquin Valley and Sacramento Valley. However, dew points are also remaining in the low to mid 40s. the air mass now moving into central California is relatively cold, but certainly nothing unusual. Widespread low to mid 30s are anticipated for Saturday through Monday mornings. With soaking wet soil and a developing warm air inversion, fog and low clouds will also come into play, especially Sunday and Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be above freezing as a milder storm moves in from the west. A stronger ridge of upper level high pressure will build inland Wednesday and remain dominant through next weekend for a continuation of above freezing conditions.
Next report: January 17/morning