trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 17, 2020
Summary: The potent storm system that barreled through the valley yesterday afternoon and evening has raced eastward and is now already over Utah and Colorado. Behind the system, we have fog and low clouds on the valley floor this morning. infrared satellite imagery indicates there is extensive low clouds and fog from Madera County north and that this mass is spreading southward. It’s possible locations which are currently under mostly clear skies could see fog and low clouds take over as the morning progresses. The air mass swinging in behind yesterday’s event is relatively cold. With upper level high pressure building in from the west, a weak warm air inversion will develop over the valley floor during the course of the weekend. This will result in areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings with hazy afternoon sunshine through Monday. High thin clouds will also overrun the high and will be visible from time to time.
The next Pacific storm of note will move through Tuesday and Tuesday night. some models this morning are indicating the best dynamics with this storm will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California, further north than previous models had indicated. Still, the chance of light showers seems possible, mainly north of Kern County. For now, it appears any precipitation that does occur will be quite light.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will build inland Wednesday and dominate the pattern through next weekend for the likelihood of extensive fog and low clouds during the nights and mornings with clearing in most areas during the afternoon. The dominant flow in the upper atmosphere for not just this weekend but all of next week will be out of the west, which should allow temperatures during the afternoons to rise to above average, unless we get into a full fledged fog regime in which case daytime highs would be cooler and overnight lows would be more mild.
Forecast: Areas of low clouds and fog this morning. partly cloudy this afternoon. Widespread night and morning low clouds and fog with hazy afternoon sunshine Saturday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness late Monday night leading to a chance of light showers Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday with widespread fog and low clouds during the night and morning hours.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/31/54/31/56 | Reedley 54/31/54/32/57 | Dinuba 52/30/54/31/56 | |
| Porterville 54/31/56/31/58 | Lindsay 53/30/54/31/58 | Delano 54/32/54/32/58 | |
| Bakersfield 55/36/57/37/60 | Taft 55/38/57/39/61 | Arvin 55/33/57/33/60 | |
| Lamont 54/33/57/34/61 | Pixley 53/31/54/32/59 | Tulare 52/30/54/31/56 | |
| Woodlake 53/31/54/31/57 | Hanford 53/33/54/33/57 | Orosi 53/30/54/31/56 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/59 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 42/59 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/57 |
Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 33/56 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 33/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 24 through January 30: this model is now indicating there will be a greater than average possibility of precipitation during this time frame. This configuration will also allow for temperatures to be fairly close to seasonal averages.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Monday night. models for Tuesday and Tuesday night still indicate a trough of low pressure will move through, however they now show weakened dynamics over central California so the chance of significant precipitation is quite low. Even so, light showers will be possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly north of the Kern County line. We’ll have to see if later model runs continue to show the precipitation line migrating further north.
After Tuesday night, models indicate a strong ridge of upper level high pressure will dominate through next weekend and possibly into the following week for a dry weather pattern.
Frost Discussion: Skies cleared rapidly behind a fast moving cold front that swept through yesterday afternoon and evening. Widespread low to mid 30s is the result early this morning. the air mass settling in behind yesterday’s storm is relatively cold. Where skies remain clear the next couple of nights, low to mid 30s will be the result with isolated upper 20s in river bottom or similar locations. Still no critical temperatures are foreseen.
Above freezing conditions can be expected Tuesday through Wednesday due to increased cloud cover. Later next week through the following weekend, the flow in the upper atmosphere will be generally out of the west, continuing to cut off any arctic air masses from getting anywhere near California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.. Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 16, 2020: Delano, 100%/56% Porterville, 98%/54%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .44, Parlier .30, Blackwell Corner .36, Arvin .39, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .32, Delano .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 48, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 49, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 74/20. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1143 -318
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.4 +2.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.11. Month to Date: .65 -.52
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or +.26. Month to Date: .23 -.37
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 569, Parlier 655, Arvin 478, Shafter 553, Stratford 550, Delano 611, Lindcove 727, Porterville 955
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 5:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 35 / 0.30 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 43 / 0.23 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / 0.16 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 38 / 0.28 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1550 / 53 / 46 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 60 / 41 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 36 / 0.21 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.43 5.14 84 7.66 125 6.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.34 3.85 71 6.28 116 5.40 13.11
MERCED 0.41 5.59 108 5.35 104 5.16 12.50
MADERA 0.30 2.87 54 4.10 77 5.30 12.02
FRESNO 0.25 3.35 72 3.69 80 4.64 11.50
HANFORD 0.22 2.83 62 2.78 61 4.54 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.64 103 1.61 63 2.56 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 48 1.74 77 2.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.48 5.62 107 5.55 106 5.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.56 6.60 129 5.71 112 5.10 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.36 4.61 85 5.45 100 5.45 13.95
Next report: January 17/afternoon