trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 19, 2020
Summary: Temperatures early this morning are uniformly in the lower 40s under a protective layer of low clouds. At Bakersfield, Porterville, Visalia, and Lemoore the base of the overcast is 900 feet. It’s 700 feet over Fresno and just 400 feet above Madera. A sharp warm air inversion associated with upper level high pressure aloft will continue to cap the valley through tonight, so clearing this afternoon will be at a premium and any location that does clear will observe increasing higher clouds above the fog deck. The freezing level this morning is now up to 11,800 feet, indicative of relatively warm air aloft.
The high will begin to shift into the interior west Monday. A strong Pacific storm will move into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday, dragging a weak trough of low pressure through northern and central California. Models this morning almost eliminate any chance of precipitation south of a Monterey/Merced line, although a few sprinkles Tuesday and Tuesday night would not be a total shock.
Wednesday through Saturday will be dominated by the next ridge of upper level high pressure. Models move daytime highs into the lower 60s on the valley floor, however it’s yet to be determined just how widespread fog and low clouds may become. During the second half of the weekend and into next week, models diverge a great deal. For now, if there’s any consensus at all, it’s that a weak trough of low pressure may move through with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north, Sunday afternoon into Monday.
Forecast: Low overcast through Monday morning. local areas of clearing are possible during the afternoon. Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. a few sprinkles are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday with a slight chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/41/58/40/59 | Reedley 48/41/60/40/61 | Dinuba 48/40/58/41/58 | |
| Porterville 51/40/60/40/61 | Lindsay 51/39/61/41/61 | Delano 50/42/61/42/62 | |
| Bakersfield 55/44/65/45/63 | Taft 58/46/65/46/63 | Arvin 57/43/66/43/63 | |
| Lamont 55/44/65/43/63 | Pixley 52/41/60/42/61 | Tulare 51/43/59/41/60 | |
| Woodlake 53/40/61/41/59 | Hanford 51/42/62/42/61 | Orosi 53/40/61/40/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 40/60 |
Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 38/58 |
Friday
Am fog/pm sun 37/60 |
Saturday
Am fog/partly cloudy 35/61 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 41/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 26 through February 1: this model is now indicating there will be a greater than average possibility of precipitation during this time frame. This configuration will also allow for temperatures to be fairly close to seasonal averages.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain: We can almost eliminate the chance for measurable rain Tuesday and Tuesday night, although a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, this week will be dry. Models vary considerably on the pattern for the second half of this coming weekend and into next week. For now, I’ll put a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Sunday and Sunday night as a weak trough of low pressure moves mainly into northern California.
Frost Discussion: We can forget about frost for a while. For tonight, a protective layer of low clouds over the valley floor will remain in place and even if the low clouds do dissipate, higher level clouds will be increasing. All locations will be above freezing Tuesday and beyond, although from Thursday through Saturday mid to upper 30s are likely in the coldest locations. Still no indication of a pattern that would bring critically cold weather to our neck of the woods.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 70%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 70%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 19, 2020: Delano, 100%/100% Porterville, 99%/76%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .34, Blackwell Corner .39, Arvin .39, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .34, Delano .37. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 47, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 48, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 73/24. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1188 -313
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 45.9 +1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.24. Month to Date: .65 -.65
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or +.18. Month to Date: .23 -.45
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 635, Parlier 703, Arvin 517, Shafter 602, Stratford 600, Delano 681, Lindcove 781, Porterville 1033
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 Sunset: 5:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:01
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 45 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 49 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 50 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 50 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 46 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 51 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 50 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 48 / 30 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 51 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.14 82 7.69 122 6.30 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.85 69 6.32 113 5.57 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 106 6.00 113 5.32 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.89 53 4.47 82 5.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.53 74 4.00 84 4.77 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 67 3.32 71 4.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.82 107 2.27 86 2.64 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 50 3.23 138 2.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.88 109 5.59 104 5.40 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 125 6.35 120 5.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.77 85 6.38 113 5.63 13.95
Next report: January 20/morning