trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 20, 2020
Summary: High pressure which has capped the valley with low clouds and fog the past few days has shifted eastward into the Rocky Mountain region. There is a fragmented trough of low pressure off shore which will be moving inland over roughly the next 18 hours or so with plenty of cloud cover. Doppler radar is showing virga from these high level clouds. This is precipitation falling but not reaching the ground. It’s possible a few sprinkles could occur today and tonight, but nothing measurable is anticipated on the valley floor.
A rather intense low over the northeast Pacific will move into British Columbia and Washington state Tuesday. The weaker trailing portion of the trough will move through northern California Tuesday with a chance of a few light showers down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line, but again no measurable precipitation is expected. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build into California Tuesday night and will dominate our weather through Friday night. the main challenge will be increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds and the amount of clearing during the afternoon hours. By and large, however, the winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere this entire work week will be generally out of the west. On days from Wednesday through Friday where afternoon skies are generally clear, temperatures will have no problem eclipsing the 60 degree mark.
Models are coming into better agreement on the pattern for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. By Saturday evening, a trough of low pressure will be approaching the northern and central California coast for what appears to be a reasonably decent chance of measurable rain Saturday night from Fresno County north. This will be followed on Sunday by a secondary wave of low pressure which, in theory, could spread light precipitation even into the south valley. After Sunday, a new ridge of high pressure shows up on models building in from the west for at least a few days of dry weather.
Forecast: Areas of low clouds and fog this morning. otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy through tonight with the possibility of a few sprinkles. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday with a few sprinkles possible Tuesday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Friday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. a chance of showers Saturday night through Sunday. Mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/41/59/41/60 | Reedley 59/40/59/41/61 | Dinuba 57/40/58/41/59 | |
| Porterville 61/39/59/41/61 | Lindsay 61/39/58/40/60 | Delano 61/41/61/42/61 | |
| Bakersfield 62/44/62/45/61 | Taft 63/46/61/46/61 | Arvin 62/42/61/42/61 | |
| Lamont 62/42/60/42/62 | Pixley 61/41/60/41/60 | Tulare 58/39/59/41/60 | |
| Woodlake 58/39/59/41/61 | Hanford 59/41/59/42/60 | Orosi 58/38/59/40/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Am fog/partly cloudy 37/59 |
Friday
Am fog/partly cloudy 38/60 |
Saturday
Pm showers possible 42/63 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 44/63 |
Monday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 43/61 |
Two Week Outlook: January 27 through February 2: This model is showing a more dominant ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in generally above average temperatures. This pattern is not conducive for precipitation.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: There is a minimal chance of a few sprinkles today through Tuesday morning. realistically, however, real rain is not anticipated. Expect dry weather through at least Saturday morning. models are indicating two waves of low pressure will move through this coming weekend: one Saturday night with a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north followed quickly by a second wave Sunday. It will bring with it a greater possibility of showers all the way down the valley. This will be followed by a ridge of high pressure, resulting in dry weather next Sunday night through Wednesday. the new two week model is looking drier now as the chance of rain during the last few days of the month appears low.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week. The dominant flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be out of the west into California. Still no pattern which would result in particularly cold weather through the end of January. This is certainly one of the easiest citrus frost seasons I’ve ever worked.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 20, 2020: Delano, 100%/85% Porterville, 98%/81%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .32, Parlier .32, Blackwell Corner .35, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .31, Delano .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 47, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 48, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 72/24. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1208 -313
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 45.9 +1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.31. Month to Date: .65 -.72
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or +.15. Month to Date: .23 -.48
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 635, Parlier 703, Arvin 517, Shafter 602, Stratford 600, Delano 681, Lindcove 781, Porterville 1033
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 Sunset: 5:12 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:02
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 45 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 49 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 48 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 47 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 46 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 47 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 51 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 52 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.14 80 7.69 120 6.39 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.85 68 6.32 112 5.65 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 104 6.00 111 5.40 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.89 52 4.47 81 5.52 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.53 73 4.00 83 4.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 66 3.32 71 4.70 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.82 106 2.27 85 2.67 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 49 3.23 136 2.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.88 107 5.59 102 5.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 123 6.35 118 5.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.77 84 6.38 112 5.71 13.95
Next report: January 20/afternoon