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Forecast

January 20, 2020/pm update

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January 20, 2020

Summary: A fragmented area of low pressure is moving through central and southern California this afternoon through tonight.  Doppler radar is indicating rain is falling but not reaching the ground.  Considering the base of the cloud deck is around 12,000 to 15,000 feet, measurable precipitation appears unlikely.

 

Skies will begin to clear Tuesday morning then increase somewhat again later Tuesday through Tuesday evening from a strong low moving into the Pacific Northwest.  This system  may spread light showers as far south as a Monterey/Merced line Tuesday evening, but no precipitation is anticipated for our region.  Beginning Wednesday, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build in from the west and dominate our weather through Saturday.  the main challenge will be areas of low clouds and fogs during the nights and mornings.  On afternoons which are fog free, temperatures will eclipse the 60 degree mark.  However, if the morning fog becomes extensive enough, where it lifts into a low overcast and no clearing occurs, only upper 40s and lower 50s will occur.

 

The next major change in the pattern continues to show up on models for the second half of next weekend.  A low center will move into the Pacific Northwest with two waves of low pressure.  The first will move through Saturday night.  it’s possible showers from this system may not reach into central California.  However, on paper, the second wave moving through Sunday appears stronger and has a greater potential for light precipitation all the way up and down the valley.  After Sunday night, upper level high pressure shows up again.

 

For the second day in a row, the two week model is pointing towards generally dry weather for late January and early February.

 

Forecast: Cloudy tonight with a small chance of sprinkles.  Partly cloudy Tuesday after patchy morning fog.  Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with patchy fog again Wednesday morning.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog.  Increasing cloudiness Saturday night leading to a chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night.  partly cloudy Monday after patchy morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 39/58/39/59 Reedley 40/59/41/60 Dinuba 38/58/40/60
Porterville 40/60/41/61 Lindsay 39/60/40/61 Delano 41/60/41/61
Bakersfield 43/62/44/62 Taft 45/61/45/61 Arvin 42/61/42/62
Lamont 41/60/42/61 Pixley 40/60/41/61 Tulare 39/58/41/60
Woodlake 39/59/40/60 Hanford 41/60/41/61 Orosi 38/59/40/60

 

Winds: Winds will be at or less than 6 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Sprinkles cannot be ruled out for the remainder of the afternoon and overnight hours.  Expect dry weather Tuesday through at least Saturday.  there will be a slight chance of light showers Saturday night.  the risk factor of showers valley wide will increase Sunday through Sunday night.  for now, this does not appear to be a major rain event.  Even so, measurable precipitation is expected.  After Sunday night, several days of dry weather show up on models.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week and, if models are correct, well into next week, as well.

Next report: January 21/morning