trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 21, 2020
Summary: It is a fairly mild morning out there with most locations dropping only into the low to mid 40s due to cloud cover overnight. One system is currently moving through the Desert Southwest while another low will move into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Light showers will spread over northern California down to roughly a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line, but the central and south valley will remain dry. The air aloft has cooled somewhat as the freezing level this morning over Vandenberg was down to 5,000 feet and down to 7,700 feet over Oakland.
Once this system moves through, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will take shape over the eastern Pacific, driving the storm track into the Pacific Northwest and about the northern ¼ of California. There are several impulses which will move inland to our north from Wednesday through Saturday, however the only ramifications for the valley will be partly cloudy skies from time to time with periods of clear skies also. The radiational cooling process and dew points in the mid 40s will allow for fog and low clouds nights and mornings from Wednesday through Saturday morning.
Models vary a great deal on the potential strength and how far south precipitation will spread from a trough of low pressure that will move through California Sunday and Sunday night. one model indicates just a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north. However, the main European model shows precipitation spreading all the way down the valley. For now, we will continue to forecast a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night. beyond Sunday night, the main storm track will again migrate into the Pacific Northwest with a return to dry weather for central and southern California.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. otherwise it will be partly cloudy through tonight with areas of fog and low clouds redeveloping later tonight and Wednesday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Saturday with fairly widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday through Sunday night. Mostly cloudy Monday after patchy morning fog. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/41/61/40/60 | Reedley 59/41/62/40/61 | Dinuba 58/48/60/40/61 | |
| Porterville 60/41/62/41/62 | Lindsay 61/40/62/40/61 | Delano 60/42/62/42/63 | |
| Bakersfield 60/44/62/43/63 | Taft 61/47/63/46/63 | Arvin 60/43/63/42/62 | |
| Lamont 60/42/63/41/63 | Pixley 60/41/62/41/62 | Tulare 58/41/60/41/61 | |
| Woodlake 59/40/61/40/61 | Hanford 60/42/62/42/61 | Orosi 59/40/60/41/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Am fog/pm sun 40/62 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 42/63 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 48/62 |
Monday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 42/61 |
Tuesday
Am fog/pm sun 41/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 28 through February 3: This model is showing a more dominant ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in generally above average temperatures. This pattern is not conducive for precipitation.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Saturday and probably Saturday night. models do show a trough of low pressure moving through central California Sunday and Sunday night. one model depicts showers just from Fresno County north while another medium range model shows precipitation throughout the valley. The best course of action for now will be to maintain a reasonable chance of showers in the forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. for now, models indicate the storm track will again move north of the district Monday with rain free weather for several days thereafter.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 21, 2020: Delano, 100%/81% Porterville, 98%/71%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .29, Parlier .31, Blackwell Corner .32, Arvin .35, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .28, Delano .30. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 48, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 48, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 72/19. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1225 -315
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.0+1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.37. Month to Date: .65 -.78
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or +.12. Month to Date: .23 -.51
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 661, Parlier 729, Arvin 541, Shafter 626, Stratford 628, Delano 708, Lindcove 813, Porterville 1077
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 Sunset: 5:13 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 50 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 54 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1536 / 55 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 57 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 48 / 41 / T /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.14 79 7.91 122 6.47 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.85 67 6.35 111 5.74 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 103 6.12 112 5.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.89 52 4.58 82 5.59 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.53 72 4.42 90 4.90 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 66 3.33 70 4.75 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.82 104 2.27 84 2.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 48 3.44 143 2.40 5.18
SALINAS T 5.88 106 5.65 101 5.57 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 6.61 122 6.36 117 5.44 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 4.77 82 6.41 111 5.80 13.95
Next report: January 21/afternoon