February 4, 2020
Summary: Temperatures overnight in the very coldest locations dropped to 23 to 24 degrees. Most protected frost stations ranged from 26 to 28, which was certainly acceptable. Similar conditions can be expected tonight. the freezing level has only marginally gone up. The sounding over Vandenberg AFB pegged the freezing level at 4,100 feet.
A cold low is centered over Utah and Colorado this morning with a trough all the way down into northern Mexico. High pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere covers the eastern Pacific Ocean, continuing to generate a north/south flow between the off shore high and the low which is situated over the interior western U.S. That northerly flow will continue through Wednesday. temperatures will finally begin to moderate Wednesday night through Saturday as the high over the eastern Pacific Ocean slowly shifts eastward into the Pacific Northwest and California. The flow aloft will then switch from northerly to northwesterly, cutting off that stream of very cold air from coming into California.
For Sunday night and Monday, a low will drop southward from western Canada into California. Since this storm is also taking an overland path, it will be starved for moisture with most, if not all, the light precipitation confined to the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Some of the models have switched their tune regarding a low pressure system expected to move in next Wednesday and Thursday. Instead of the low skirting the coastline, models now indicate it will also take an overland path, minimizing the chance of precipitation.
For next Thursday through Saturday, a large high will develop over the eastern Pacific, building northward into Alaska. Meanwhile, a big very cold trough of low pressure will dig southward into the western U.S. if you believe that sounds similar to the current weather pattern, you are correct. This leads me to believe frost nights will not end once this string is over.
Forecast: Clear skies and continued cold through Wednesday. clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Saturday with a slow warming trend. Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday. Variable cloudiness Sunday night and Monday with a slight chance of light showers. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 52/26/55/30/61 | Reedley 52/26/55/30/60 | Dinuba 51/25/55/29/61 | |
| Porterville 53/26/55/30/61 | Lindsay 51/26/54/29/61 | Delano 53/27/55/31/61 | |
| Bakersfield 53/30/56/35/62 | Taft 52/28/56/32/61 | Arvin 54/26/56/30/63 | |
| Lamont 53/26/56/31/62 | Pixley 53/26/55/30/60 | Tulare 51/25/55/29/60 | |
| Woodlake 53/26/55/30/61 | Hanford 53/27/55/31/61 | Orosi 53/26/55/29/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 34/62 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 36/64 |
Sunday
Increasing clouds 39/63 |
Monday
Chance of showers 40/58 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 35/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 11 through February 16: This model is depicting a rather chilly north to northeast flow from the Gulf of Alaska, or even west of Canada, into the western U.S. strong high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific so the chance of rain is low. Expect below average temperatures.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain Discussion: There will be a slight chance of a few light showers Sunday night and Monday. However, most if not all the precipitation will be confined to the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Models have been trending towards a better chance of precipitation about Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Some of the models this morning, however, have changed their tune and show the low as more of an inside slider as the storm drives into the Great Basin. This would greatly reduce the chance of rain on the valley floor with only a chance of light snow showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Beyond next Thursday, models are all pointing to dry weather.
Frost Discussion: Coldest unprotected locations last night dropped into the 23 to 24 degree range. Most frost stations that were protected ranged from 26 to 28 degrees. There were isolated pockets along the foothills that only dropped to 30 degrees due to downslope wind conditions.
The coldest unprotected locations tonight will drop to 23 to 25 degrees. Most flatland locations will range between 26 and 28 degrees. Hillsides will generally range between 30 and 34.
The inversion tonight will be tighter with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Coldest low lying unprotected locations tonight will drop to 32 degrees about 8:30 to 9:00pm. Navelencia last night hit 32 by 7:30. Most of the coldest locations will drop to 28 degrees between 11:00pm to 1:00am and not rise above freezing until after 8:30 Wednesday morning.
The modification process will finally begin Wednesday as highs move into the mid to upper 50s. Coldest locations Thursday morning will drop into the upper 20s with many locations in the lower 30s. widespread low to mid 30s can be expected Friday morning with most locations above freezing by Saturday morning.
The longer term outlook for next Wednesday and beyond is a bit ominous. Models show another massive high building along the Pacific coast and into Alaska with a cold trough of low pressure digging southward into the interior west, generating yet another northerly flow into California. We’ll cross that bridge much later.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
25 |
Woodlake
26 |
| Strathmore
26 |
Mcfarland
27 |
Ducor
25 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
26 |
| Belridge
25 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
26 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
26 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
27 |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
26 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 20s. Low to mid 20s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/60%
Actual Humidity range February 3, 2020: Delano, 95%/34% Porterville, 95%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .57, Parlier .45, Blackwell Corner .55, Arvin .52, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .46, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 51, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 51, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 77/28. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1415 -380
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 49.3. +1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.34. Month to Date: .00. -.22
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.42. Month to Date: .00 -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 756, Parlier 827, Arvin 648, Shafter 739, Stratford 729, Delano 811, Lindcove 958, Porterville 1277
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 Sunset: 5:28 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:29
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 55 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 50 / 28 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 68 9.04 116 7.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 56 7.53 108 6.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 90 7.04 112 6.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 46 5.43 86 6.34 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 60 5.13 87 5.88 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 59 4.58 86 5.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 87 2.92 90 3.25 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 42 3.99 145 2.75 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 88 6.90 102 6.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 99 8.93 134 6.68 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 67 8.45 119 7.11 13.95
Next report: February 4/afternoon