February 6, 2020
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are running 5 to 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and will end up in the lower 60s at most locations. Rather dramatic warming is occurring above the valley floor. Sandberg at the 4,100 foot elevation is reporting 66 degrees, which is 14 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Even as high as 5,600 feet at Blue Canyon, the temperature is 60. The freezing level has shot up to just under 13,000 feet.
Upper level high pressure is centered roughly 300 miles off the central coast. We continue to be under a northwest flow aloft and, with the warm bubble of subsiding air above the valley floor, the warming trend will continue. Dew points still remain very low, generally in the mid to upper 20s, so many frost stations will end up at or marginally below freezing tonight.
Generally clear skies will continue through Saturday, then an upper level low originating in Canada will drop into central California Sunday for a chance of light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and just a slight chance of rain over the valley floor, mainly near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The low will move into southern California Monday and over Sonora, Mexico Tuesday while a new ridge of high pressure builds along the California coast for a brief northerly flow resulting in a cooling trend Sunday and Monday.
Next week will be dry as a large, persistent ridge of high pressure remains just off the west coast. The flow aloft will generally be out of the northwest, so cold weather such as we’ve recently experienced, does not show up. Unfortunately, neither does precipitation. It’s conceivable we could go all the way to the 20th with no rain, following a January with a third of seasonal average rainfall.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday through Monday with a slight chance of light showers later Sunday and Sunday night, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Becoming mostly clear later Monday and on through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/65/36/66 | Reedley 32/65/36/65 | Dinuba 31/64/35/65 | |
| Porterville 32/65/35/66 | Lindsay 31/64/35/67 | Delano 33/66/36/67 | |
| Bakersfield 39/66/40/68 | Taft 41/66/42/68 | Arvin 35/66/39/68 | |
| Lamont 35/67/39/68 | Pixley 33/65/36/66 | Tulare 30/64/34/65 | |
| Woodlake 31/65/35/65 | Hanford 34/66/37/66 | Orosi 30/64/35/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: There is a slight chance of a few light showers later Sunday and Sunday night from a cold, moisture starved upper low which will move through from north to south. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is less than 20%. This minimal chance of precipitation is the only chance we will see through the remainder of next week and quite possibly into the following week.
Frost Discussion: Air temperatures this afternoon are running 5 to 7 degrees higher than yesterday at this time, with readings near 60 at 1:00pm. Dew points, however, are still down into the mid to upper 20s, although at Porterville it had struggled up to 30. Even though significant warming has taken place during the day, the very dry air on the valley floor will still allow strong radiational cooling with many locations at or marginally below freezing tonight.
Coldest locations tonight could lower into the 29 to 30 degree range with most locations in the low to mid 30s.
Readings will be above freezing Saturday and Sunday mornings with a few locations possibly approaching 32 Saturday morning.
A cold upper low will drop from north to south through central California Saturday through Sunday night with a brief northerly flow behind the system. It’s possible Monday and Tuesday mornings could see coldest locations at or marginally near freezing, but no significant cold event is expected.
The way medium range models are shaping up, above freezing conditions can be expected for the remainder of next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
34 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 7/morning