February 7, 2020
Summary: The warming trend that began in earnest yesterday continues today as temperatures were up 3 to 5 degrees over yesterday’s temps. As of 1:00pm, many locations were already approaching the mid 60s. also, dew points are substantially higher, which is discussed below in the frost section.
Overall, that pattern shows upper level high pressure just off the California coast with a weak northwesterly flow aloft. In the meantime, a low center is developing near Vancouver Island and will track overland, centering over central California by midday Sunday. Models indicate this system is even dryer than earlier estimated. Still, light snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains with the snow level Sunday lowering to near 3,000 feet. This is a very cold system and it will move into southern California Monday, ending that slight chance of light showers.
Upper level high pressure will be right off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and California Tuesday and Wednesday while the low center will move into Sonora, Mexico. This will create a north/northeast flow aloft and, with surface high pressure building into the Great Basin, an off shore flow will develop. This promises a couple of chilly mornings Monday and Tuesday, but they won’t compare to readings of earlier this week.
By Wednesday, high pressure will begin to nose into California from the west with a northwesterly flow aloft. This high will dominate the pattern through Friday then a new low center will drop into the Great Basin next Saturday, continuing the trend of systems moving into the interior west, leaving California high and dry.
Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday. partly cloudy later Saturday night through Sunday night. a slight chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night, mainly near the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountain’s foothills. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Tuesday night with chilly overnight low temperatures. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/67/38/55 | Reedley 34/66/37/56 | Dinuba 33/66/36/55 | |
| Porterville 35/67/37/56 | Lindsay 34/67/37/56 | Delano 35/68/38/55 | |
| Bakersfield 41/68/42/55 | Taft 42/69/42/56 | Arvin 38/68/40/57 | |
| Lamont 37/68/39/57 | Pixley 35/67/38/56 | Tulare 34/65/36/55 | |
| Woodlake 35/66/37/56 | Hanford 36/67/38/57 | Orosi 34/65/36/56 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday night along the west side of the valley will increase out of the northwest to 15 to 25 MPH, continuing through Sunday evening. Winds towards the center, over the eastern flank, and over the Kern County portion of the valley floor will be generally in the 5 to 12 MPH range with stronger gusts. Winds later Sunday night will become light to near calm, continuing Monday.
Rain: Models are now indicating this weak upper low that will move through central California Sunday will be even dryer than earlier thought. Light snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains with snow possibly as low as 3,000 feet. There is a slight possibility of a few light showers mainly near the foothills Sunday and Sunday night, but in all likelihood, most locations will remain dry. The remainder of next week will be dry as well, and possibly into the following week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight except at or slightly above in the coldest river bottom and similar locations. Dew points this afternoon are running anywhere from 8 to 11 degrees higher than 24 hours ago and have now climbed into the mid 30s. Yesterday at this time they were in the mid 20s, thus today’s forecast for above freezing temperatures. Readings will also be above freezing Sunday morning.
The cold low moving through Sunday and Sunday night will be followed by a cold north/northeast flow aloft and an offshore surface flow. Coldest low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings may dip down to 28 to 29 degrees with widespread lower 30s anticipated.
Moderation will begin as early as Wednesday morning with many locations above freezing and above freezing conditions continuing.
Next report: February 8/morning