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Forecast

February 9, 2020/pm update

              

 

February 9, 2020

Summary: Doppler Radar is showing isolated small light showers along the Sierra Nevada and on little isolated shower in northwest Fresno County at this hour, but that’s it.  The center of circulation of the cold upper low is roughly over the Los Angeles Basin.  It’s moving south/southeast.  By sunrise Monday, the low will have ventured to a position near Tijuana.  Any chance of precipitation over central California will end later tonight over the Kern County mountains.

 

The flow wrapping around the northern rim of this storm is now out of the east and will rapidly become out of the northeast as the low pulls further south.  Upper level high pressure is building along the California coast and it will contribute to a north/northeast flow Monday into Tuesday morning.  by Tuesday night, the off shore high will be shifting further west, turning the winds aloft out of the northwest and cutting off that cold northerly flow.

 

Models have changed a bit on the outlook for late Thursday night and Friday.  Instead of the low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Great Basin, the track is now projected to be further west, taking it right into northern and central California.  This would increase the chance of light showers over central California, so we’ll add at least a minimal chance of showers for Thursday night and Friday.

 

A weaker system will move down the west coast of Canada through the Pacific Northwest and possibly into northern and central California Saturday night and Sunday for another minimal chance of light showers.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy this evening.  Clearing by the late evening hours with the possible exception of Kern County which will remain partly cloudy.  Mostly clear Monday through Thursday morning.  increasing clouds Thursday afternoon with a small chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday.  Partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday.  increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a slight chance of showers Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 31/61/31/64 Reedley 31/62/31/65 Dinuba 30/60/31/63
Porterville 30/62/31/65 Lindsay 29/61/29/65 Delano 31/62/31/65
Bakersfield 35/60/37/66 Taft 34/60/35/66 Arvin 34/60/33/67
Lamont 34/61/33/66 Pixley 30/61/31/65 Tulare 29/61/30/64
Woodlake 30/62/30/65 Hanford 33/62/32/65 Orosi 29/61/28/64

 

Winds: Winds mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor will be out of the north tonight and Monday at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.  Elsewhere, winds will be out of the north to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH through this evening then will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions after midnight.  Winds Tuesday and Wednesday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather through Thursday.  Models are painting somewhat of a different pattern for Thursday night and Friday.  Previously, models had indicated a low would move out of the Gulf of Alaska then southeastward into the Great Basin just east of the Sierra Nevada.  Now, some of these models are tracking this system further to the west, taking it over northern and central California Thursday night and Friday, resulting in a chance of light showers for the valley.  A weaker system also will take a similar path Saturday night and Sunday for a slight chance of light showers.  So at least there’s a little hope of light precipitation in the future.

 

Frost Discussion:  Temperatures tonight will be quite variable.  Winds should stay up along the west side of the valley, maintaining slightly above freezing conditions along the west side.  It’s possible that the valley portion of Kern County may be the benefactor of at least some cloud cover during the night.  however, it’s quite questionable whether the cloud cover will remain in place through the pre dawn hours.  The coldest air aloft is now over southern California.  Even so, dew points have lowered into the upper 20s and lower 30s at most locations.  The coldest unprotected river bottom and similar locations have the potential of dropping into the 27 to 28 degree range with most flat terrain locations from 29 to 32.  The inversion tonight will be rather weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 4 degrees warmer. This will improve Monday night.  readings Tuesday morning will be roughly the same, although locations primarily on the west side may be colder due to the fact that winds will no longer be a factor.

 

Look for generally low to mid 30s at most locations Wednesday morning with above freezing conditions Thursday and on through the remainder of the week.

 

No critical weather pattern shows up on models for the following week, as well.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

Mcfarland

29

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

28

Exeter

28

Famoso

31

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

31

Arvin

32

Lamont

32

Plainview

30

Mettler

Af

Edison

34

Maricopa

33

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing                 Next report: February 10/morning