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Forecast

February 9, 2020/report

February 9, 2020

Summary: Even though skies are mostly clear over much of the valley this morning, light showers have broken out along the Sierra Nevada in Fresno County and northern Tulare County.  As of 5:00am, the freezing level over Vandenberg AFB was 11,200 feet.  However, up at Oakland, the sounding indicated the freezing level there had plummeted to 5,600 feet.  This shows very well the colder air mass invading central California.  The cold upper low will form a closed circulation over Kern County this afternoon.  It’s possible light showers over the Sierra Nevada could drift into mainly the extreme eastern San Joaquin Valley as the counterclockwise circulation around the low creates an easterly flow aloft.  Most locations will remain dry, however.

 

As the low moves into southern California tonight, rain and snow showers will spread over southern California as a stronger upper low drifts to a position near San Diego by midday Monday.

 

In the meantime, upper level high pressure will be building northward in the eastern Pacific, reaching into the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds aloft wrapping around the low to our south and that high to our west will become north/northeast, spreading colder and drier air into central California.  The next couple of mornings will see fairly widespread frost.  The off shore high will shift far enough to the east Tuesday night and Wednesday to turn the winds aloft out of the northwest for the beginning of a warming trend.

 

The next low pressure system has origins in the Gulf of Alaska and will slide into the Great Basin Thursday night and Friday with a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada.  For now, though, we’ll keep the valley forecast dry.

 

High pressure will again build in from the west Friday night and Saturday then another slider may move into the Great Basin Saturday night and Sunday, too far to the east to have much of an impact here.

 

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy today with a slight chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Partly cloudy this evening.  Becoming mostly clear overnight with the possible exception of Kern County where upslope clouds may linger for much of the night.  mostly clear Monday through Thursday.  Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 57/30/60/30/64 Reedley 57/30/61/31/65 Dinuba 56/29/61/30/64
Porterville 57/30/61/30/65 Lindsay 57/29/60/30/65 Delano 57/31/61/31/65
Bakersfield 55/35/60/36/66 Taft 54/37/60/38/66 Arvin 54/32/60/32/65
Lamont 55/32/60/32/66 Pixley 56/30/60/31/65 Tulare 56/29/61/30/63
Woodlake 57/29/61/30/64 Hanford 57/31/61/32/65 Orosi 56/29/61/30/64

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Mostly clear

34/66

Thursday

Mostly clear

36/65

Friday

Partly cloudy

39/65

Saturday

Partly cloudy

38/65

Sunday

Partly cloudy

39/66

 

Two Week Outlook: February 15 through February 21:  Models continue to show below to well below average temperatures during this time frame over all of the western United States.  This model continues to indicate that we have a 98% chance of below average temperatures.  A strong high will remain anchored along the Pacific coast, blocking any potential rain.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds along the west side will be out of the north to northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH through this evening.  Winds elsewhere will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  Winds tonight will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm winds after midnight.  Along the west side, winds will continue out of the north at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain Discussion:  Just a slight chance of light showers near the Sierra Nevada foothills today.  However, the remainder of the valley will remain dry.  Dry weather will continue tonight and for the remainder of the week.  We will have to watch a system sliding into the Great Basin Thursday night and Friday for a chance of showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, but for now we’ll go with a dry forecast for the valley through the weekend and quite possibly  beyond.

 

Frost Discussion:  Freezing levels illustrate the character of the air mass very well this morning.  freezing levels as of 5:00am were still above 11,000 feet above Vandenberg but had fallen to 5,600 feet over Oakland.  That cold air will continue to move into central California under a northeasterly flow aloft wrapping around a moisture starved low that’s pretty much overhead today.  Gusty winds out of the north to northwest will move down the west side of the valley, once again driving down dew points probably into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.  upslope clouds may also be a factor tonight, mainly in Kern County, but mostly clear skies will prevail elsewhere.  Winds will continue to be rather robust along the west side tonight, but generally light winds to near calm conditions will be the experience elsewhere, especially after midnight.

 

Coldest river bottom and similar location tonight will drop down to 26 to 27 degrees with most flatland locations between 28 and 32.  Locations along the west side will likely remain above freezing due to wind conditions.  Lows in Kern County may remain above freezing, as well, if upslope clouds continue to regenerate along the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains.

 

The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 4 degrees warmer.  Expect similar conditions Tuesday morning.  Frost will more likely be more widespread as winds will have died off along the west side and skies even over Kern County will be generally clear.

 

The moderation process will begin in earnest Wednesday morning with coldest locations around 30 and  most locations between 32 and 36.  From Thursday and beyond, expect above freezing conditions.             

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

29

Mcfarland

28

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

28

Exeter

28

Famoso

30

Madera

30

Belridge

Af

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

30

Arvin

32

Lamont

31

Plainview

29

Mettler

Af

Edison

33

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 40%/75% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 40%/85%

Actual Humidity range February 8, 2020: Delano, 100%/34% Porterville, 97%/34%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .64, Parlier .56, Blackwell Corner .67, Arvin .61, Orange Cove .60, Porterville .54, Delano .58. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 48, Delano 47

Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/38

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1508 -370

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 47.3. -0.9

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.71.  Month to Date: .00. -.59

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.83, or -.64.  Month to Date: .00 -.35

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 823,  Parlier 890,  Arvin 712, Shafter 799, Stratford 792, Delano 877, Lindcove 1025, Porterville 1352

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:53 Sunset: 5:34 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:39

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1500 /  67 /  34 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1500 /  67 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1500 /  69 /  39 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1500 /  70 /  33 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  69 /  30 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  71 /  39 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  68 /  35 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1553 /  72 /  36 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  70 /  33 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  68 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.27    64    9.82   119     8.24    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.92    53    8.04   109     7.41    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.69    85    7.49   111     6.73    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    43    5.94    89     6.68    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.54    57    6.32   101     6.25    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    56    4.98    89     5.58    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.83    82    3.02    87     3.47     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.16    40    4.27   147     2.90     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.99    83    8.51   118     7.24    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.61    93    9.57   134     7.14    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.79    63    9.17   120     7.63    13.95

 

 

Next report: February 9/afternoon