February 10, 2020
Summary: The center of a cold upper low is now just west of the northern Baja coastline. Numerous showers are occurring, spreading over southern California, especially down in Imperial and San Diego Counties. You definitely can tell where the pool of cold air is located as the freezing level has dropped to 5,000 feet over San Diego and has jumped up to 10,200 feet over Oakland, a rise of 5000 feet in one day. Currently, the winds aloft are out of the east/northeast due to the counter clockwise circulation around the low. By later this evening, the center of circulation will be somewhere near Yuma. As that is occurring, upper level high pressure will be building off shore, creating a north/northeast flow aloft. By Wednesday, that high will be pushing inland with a milder northwest flow taking over.
A weak trough of low pressure will move through Friday. All of the models have given up on precipitation with this feature with the possible exception of the high Sierra. It now appears the only chance of rain for the next ten days will be Sunday. Some models move this cold system southward into the northern half of California. However, others depict this storm as an inside slider with the main energy sliding into the interior west with only a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada.
Next week appears dry as a large high is projected to cover the eastern Pacific and much of the western U.S.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday night. increasing clouds Sunday leading to a slight chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward later Sunday and Sunday night. partly cloudy Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/31/65/35/68 | Reedley 62/32/64/36/67 | Dinuba 61/30/64/34/67 | |
| Porterville 62/31/64/35/68 | Lindsay 62/31/64/34/67 | Delano 61/32/64/36/69 | |
| Bakersfield 60/37/67/40/70 | Taft 61/40/67/44/69 | Arvin 61/33/67/37/70 | |
| Lamont 61/34/67/38/70 | Pixley 62/31/64/35/68 | Tulare 61/30/64/34/66 | |
| Woodlake 62/31/64/35/67 | Hanford 62/33/64/37/68 | Orosi 61/30/64/34/67 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 37/68 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/61 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 39/61 |
Sunday
Small chance of showers 32/60 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 39/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 15 through February 21: Models continue to show below to well below average temperatures during this time frame over all of the western United States. This model continues to indicate that we have a 98% chance of below average temperatures. A strong high will remain anchored along the Pacific coast, blocking any potential rain.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Thursday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: For now, it appears the only chance of rain will be Sunday and Sunday night. there are two possible solutions on model information. The first is for the low to move into northern and central California for at least a chance of light showers. However, other projections indicate the main energy will move into the Great Basin just east of the Sierra Nevada, leaving the valley dry with only a chance of showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Models for next week are showing nothing but dry weather due to a large ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western 1/3 of the U.S.
Frost Discussion: Lows this morning are generally in the lower 30s north of Kern County with a few exceptions. Fowler was down to 27 this morning while Sanger is reporting 28 degrees. Most locations in Kern County are in the mid 30s. Similar conditions can be expected tonight with the very coldest locations down to 28 in unprotected river bottom and similar locations. Most locations, though, will be in the lower 30s. the inversion tonight will be better with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer. Most locations Wednesday morning will drop into the mid to upper 30s with coldest low spots in the lower 30s.
Expect above freezing temperatures to prevail Thursday and beyond. For now, there’s nothing suggesting subfreezing weather in the future.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern, upper 20s to the lower 30s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/90%
Actual Humidity range February 9, 2020: Delano, 100%/38% Porterville, 97%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .65, Parlier .55, Blackwell Corner .69, Arvin .62, Orange Cove .58, Porterville .55, Delano .60. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 47, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 75/29. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1526 -368
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.2. -1.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.78. Month to Date: .00. -.66
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.69. Month to Date: .00 -.40
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 836, Parlier 904, Arvin 716, Shafter 805, Stratford 803, Delano 890, Lindcove 1039, Porterville 1367
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 Sunset: 5:35 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 59 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1557 / 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1557 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 63 9.99 120 8.33 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 52 8.04 107 7.50 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 84 7.68 113 6.81 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 43 6.02 89 6.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 56 6.33 100 6.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 55 5.10 90 5.64 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 80 3.07 87 3.52 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 40 4.29 147 2.92 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 82 8.63 118 7.33 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 92 9.70 134 7.22 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 62 9.26 120 7.74 13.95
Next report: February 10/afternoon