Summary: Only subtle changes will take place in the pattern over the weekend. Currently, a very weak cold front is dying over northern California. A weak wave of low pressure will move overhead today, marginally lowering pressures aloft. The freezing level over Oakland has dropped a bit, standing at 9,500 feet. Of interest also is the freezing level over Vandenberg this morning. it’s dropped to 8,500 feet.
Models show a very weak upper low developing off the southern California coast. It will not have any impact on our weather.
The next weather system to move out of the Gulf of Alaska will move through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin Sunday afternoon into early Monday. This will generate a strong on shore flow with gusty winds over the higher elevations. That onshore flow will become off shore by Monday night and Tuesday as upper level high pressure develops over the Great Basin.
Meanwhile, upper level high pressure will be building northward along the eastern Pacific all the way into Alaska and the northwest territories of Canada. Models are also showing some kind of an upper low trying to develop in the vicinity of central California Wednesday through Friday of next week. It looks like a dry feature for the moment, anyway, but might be able to produce some light showers over the high Sierra. A pool of somewhat cooler air will also move overhead for the chance of areas of frost Tuesday through Friday mornings.
Medium range outlooks going out through the 27th are still indicating a blocking ridge off the coast of North America will be in place, giving little chance of precipitation for the foreseeable future.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Tuesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/36/68/38/68 | Reedley 67/35/67/37/67 | Dinuba 66/34/67/36/67 | |
| Porterville 68/34/68/36/68 | Lindsay 67/34/68/36/68 | Delano 68/36/68/37/67 | |
| Bakersfield 69/42/69/44/67 | Taft 68/44/69/45/67 | Arvin 69/37/69/39/68 | |
| Lamont 68/38/69/39/68 | Pixley 67/35/68/36/68 | Tulare 66/34/68/36/67 | |
| Woodlake 66/34/67/37/67 | Hanford 66/38/68/39/67 | Orosi 67/34/67/36/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 37/62 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/61 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 33/62 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 33/63 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 34/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 21 through February 27: This model is now projecting above average temperatures during this time frame as upper level high pressure will be dominant. The chance of precipitation is extremely low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Monday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: For now, there appears to be no chance of rain for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Monday morning. models vary a great deal on the pattern for Tuesday through Friday of next week. It does look possible that some kind of upper low will develop either over or near central California. For now, this feature looks to be dry. If it does form, it would bring a cooler pool of air into our region. Widespread low to mid 30s seems likely for Tuesday through Friday with a chance of the coldest regions dropping into the upper 20s. no serious widespread frost or freeze event is on the horizon, however.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/90%
Actual Humidity range February 13, 2020: Delano, 100%/40% Porterville, 96%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .69, Parlier .63, Blackwell Corner .75, Arvin .74, Orange Cove .67, Porterville .65, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 50, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 48, Delano 48
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 62/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1586 -369
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 48.0. -0.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.06. Month to Date: .00. -.94
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.86. Month to Date: .00 -.57
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 862, Parlier 928, Arvin 739, Shafter 826, Stratford 827, Delano 915, Lindcove 1066, Porterville 1395
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 Sunset: 5:39 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 72 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 73 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 72 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 71 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1534 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 61 11.21 129 8.68 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 50 8.48 108 7.82 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 80 8.32 117 7.13 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 41 6.36 90 7.04 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 54 6.70 102 6.60 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 53 5.34 91 5.89 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 77 3.20 87 3.69 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 38 4.57 150 3.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 78 9.38 122 7.67 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 87 10.24 135 7.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 59 9.63 118 8.15 13.95
Next report: February 14/afternoon