February 15, 2020
Summary: Upper level high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific with California flanked on the eastern rim of this high. The air aloft continues to be mild with a freezing level of 11,300 feet. The warm bubble of subsiding air will continue to drive temperatures generally into the upper 60s both today and Sunday. Warmest locations could eclipse the 70 degree mark. A weather system will skirt the coast of British Columbia Sunday night and Monday then dive southeastward into the Pacific Northwest and then into the interior west. It will be too far to the east for precipitation even over the Sierra Nevada. Right behind this system, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build a ridge way north into Alaska and northwest Canada. This will generate a northerly flow over the Rocky Mountain region, but more importantly, a northwest flow over central California which is a mild flow. This will eliminate any chance of frost next week with the possible exception of a few river bottoms approaching the freezing mark Tuesday through Thursday mornings.
Some models show a cut off low trying to form somewhere over or near central California. Even if this does come to pass, models show it to be a dry feature so the very long dry spell currently underway will continue. Even the two week model continues to indicate the chance of precipitation is very low through the end of the month.
Forecast: Other than periods of high, thin clouds, mostly clear skies will continue through Wednesday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/37/69/38/64 | Reedley 68/36/69/38/63 | Dinuba 67/35/68/36/63 | |
| Porterville 69/36/69/38/64 | Lindsay 69/34/69/37/63 | Delano 69/38/69/39/64 | |
| Bakersfield 70/45/70/46/64 | Taft 69/47/69/46/63 | Arvin 70/38/70/39/65 | |
| Lamont 69/40/69/40/64 | Pixley 68/37/69/38/63 | Tulare 67/35/69/38/63 | |
| Woodlake 67/36/69/38/64 | Hanford 68/39/69/39/63 | Orosi 68/35/69/37/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 36/64 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 36/63 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 37/70 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/65 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 38/63 |
Two Week Outlook: February 22 through February 28: The chance for precipitation during this time frame still appears very low. The general flow pattern in the upper atmosphere, however, will be favorable for below average temperatures during this period.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Tuesday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: For now, there appears to be no chance of rain for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future. Models continue to trend towards a high building far to the north into Alaska and northwest Canada Monday through Wednesday. however, the configuration will be such that the flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be out of the northwest rather than the north. It’s possible isolated low lying regions could brush with the freezing mark Tuesday through Thursday, but otherwise, above freezing conditions will continue.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/90%
Actual Humidity range February 14, 2020: Delano, 100%/45% Porterville, 90%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .70, Parlier .64, Blackwell Corner .75, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .66, Delano .68. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 50, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 48, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 62/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1596 -374
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 48.5. -0.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.13. Month to Date: .00. -1.01
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.90. Month to Date: .00 -.61
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 888, Parlier 955, Arvin 767, Shafter 848, Stratford 855, Delano 941, Lindcove 1096, Porterville 1428
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:46 Sunset: 5:40 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1550 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 66 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 60 11.29 129 8.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 50 8.73 110 7.91 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 79 8.73 121 7.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 41 6.38 90 7.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 53 6.82 102 6.67 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 52 5.38 90 5.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 76 3.46 93 3.73 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 38 5.63 183 3.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 77 9.56 123 7.76 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 86 10.90 142 7.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 58 10.09 122 8.25 13.95
Next report: February 16/morning