February 18, 2020
Summary: A large ridge of upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and the western one-quarter of the lower 48. With a big ridge extending into Alaska. Cold air is sliding southward along this high, but it’s much too far to the east to affect central California.
The next feature of note will be the formation of a cut off low off the central California coast Thursday. These systems are always tricky but my bet is it will begin to swing inland through southern California and northern Baja late Friday and Saturday. models show this system as being very moisture starved. Even so, it may add enough lift to the atmosphere for a chance of showers over the Kern County mountains and possibly the southern Sierra Nevada Friday night and Saturday. for now, it looks like the valley floor will remain dry. After this system goes through, high pressure off shore will move inland, renewing the very quiet and mild weather pattern.
We will have to watch the evolution of a pattern early next week that models vary considerably on. One medium range model indicates a mild dry pattern will continue. However, the GFS Model indicates a narrow ridge of high pressure will build northward into Alaska while a rather robust low develops over the Desert Southwest. This could bring about a spring frost as a sharp north to south flow along the eastern rim of the high brings a much cooler air mass into California. This same model indicates Porterville will have a low of 31 degrees Tuesday morning of next week which would put colder frost stations considerably lower. Again, this is only one model, but generally speaking, it is one of the more reliable. We’ll watch for trends on this model and others.
Forecast: Other than occasional periods of high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/37/69/37/71 | Reedley 69/36/69/37/71 | Dinuba 68/35/68/36/70 | |
| Porterville 69/36/70/37/73 | Lindsay 69/35/69/37/73 | Delano 70/38/70/38/74 | |
| Bakersfield 71/45/71/44/75 | Taft 70/47/70/48/74 | Arvin 71/40/71/42/75 | |
| Lamont 70/40/70/41/74 | Pixley 70/37/69/37/72 | Tulare 67/35/68/36/71 | |
| Woodlake 69/37/69/38/72 | Hanford 70/38/69/39/73 | Orosi 68/35/69/36/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 39/69 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 41/66 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/68 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/59 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 35/60 |
Two Week Outlook: February 25 through March 2: This model shows that the western two-thirds of the U.S. will experience below average temperatures during this time frame. Unfortunately, a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be off the Pacific coast so it appears the trend of dry weather will continue.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: For now, there appears to be no chance of rain for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees through at least Monday morning. models differ a great deal on a pattern beginning Monday of next week. One of the two medium range models is indicating the possibility of a much cooler air mass overspreading California due to a narrow ridge of upper level high pressure extending northward into Alaska. At the same time, a big trough of low pressure is projected to cover the interior west just east of Nevada. This creates a north/south flow from western Canada and into the western U.S. with very cold air east of the Sierra Nevada and colder, drier air filtering into California. If this pattern does play out, we could possibly be looking at mid to upper 20s in the coldest locations as early as next Tuesday morning. I must emphasize, however, other models show the cold air mass moving much further east, leaving California under more of a northwesterly, milder flow, eliminating any chance of below freezing weather. So, considering the war of words between models this morning, we will just have to watch modeling information and come up with something more definitive as the week wears on.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/85%
Actual Humidity range February 17, 2020: Delano, 100%/50% Porterville, 92%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .74, Parlier .70, Blackwell Corner .78, Arvin .81, Orange Cove .72, Porterville .71, Delano .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 51, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 50, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 84/27. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1616 -383
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 49.2. +0.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.35. Month to Date: .00. -1.23
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -1.04. Month to Date: .00 -.75
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 910, Parlier 976, Arvin 790, Shafter 863, Stratford 872, Delano 964, Lindcove 1118, Porterville 1457
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:43 Sunset: 5:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DHM / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DHM / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 68 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 58 11.51 127 9.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 48 9.17 112 8.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 76 9.47 127 7.47 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 39 7.17 97 7.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 51 7.65 111 6.89 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 51 5.84 95 6.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 73 3.55 92 3.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 37 5.63 178 3.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 75 10.40 130 8.02 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 83 11.28 142 7.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 56 10.86 127 8.58 13.95
Next report: February 18/afternoon