February 19, 2020
Summary: In the very short term, today’s weather will be very similar to the past few days. The pattern will become more complex Thursday through early Saturday. it is now a given that a cut off low will form off the central California coast tomorrow. The problem arises on the exact path this system will take as it moves inland Friday night and early Saturday. some models are showing this system moving in further north, possibly as far north as southern Kern County, which would certainly increase the chance of light showers over the Kern County mountains and possibly even the valley floor with the chance of measurable rain possibly as far north as Fresno County.
Also, as the low approaches, surface pressure differences will increase between the approaching low and higher pressure over the high deserts and the Great Basin. Locally gusty east to southeast winds are certainly possible over the valley portion of Kern County, especially along the Hwy 58 corridor and possibly at places like the bottom of the Grapevine. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gusty winds work as far north as Bakersfield. Downslope heating will cause temperatures to rise well into the 70s Thursday and Friday. It’s possible a few locations in Kern County could approach the 80 degree mark, especially Thursday.
Once this system begins its eastward shift, the forward speed will increase dramatically. Some models show it as far east as the Four Corners area by Saturday afternoon.
A large high will build along the Pacific coast Monday and Tuesday of next week. A northwest flow aloft will develop, spreading a cooler air mass into California. Some of the very coldest locations Tuesday and Wednesday mornings could slip into the lower 30s, but no real frost or freeze event is expected as a northwesterly flow will prevail rather than a northerly one.
Medium range models continue to indicate a blocking ridge pattern will set up, so this minor possibility of precipitation Friday into Saturday appears to be the last best chance for a while, barring something unforeseen.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday through early Saturday with a chance of light showers, mainly near the foothills surrounding the valley. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/36/72/39/70 | Reedley 69/36/73/39/71 | Dinuba 68/35/72/38/70 | |
| Porterville 70/36/74/40/73 | Lindsay 70/35/74/39/72 | Delano 71/37/74/41/73 | |
| Bakersfield 71/44/78/47/74 | Taft 70/49/76/50/74 | Arvin 71/40/77/42/73 | |
| Lamont 71/40/76/41/74 | Pixley 70/37/74/40/72 | Tulare 68/35/72/39/71 | |
| Woodlake 69/36/72/39/71 | Hanford 70/37/73/40/72 | Orosi 69/35/72/39/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM showers possible 43/61 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 35/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 35/66 |
Two Week Outlook: February 26 through March 3: California is the only area to have projected temperatures near average during this time frame. The rest of the western 2/3 of the U.S. is projected to have below average temperatures. The chance of precipitation during this time frame remains very low.
Winds Discussion: As a cut off low forms off the central coast Thursday, the chance for downslope winds will increase over the valley portion of Kern County, mainly from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. The main pressure gradient will be from east to west, so areas along the Hwy 58 corridor or any location near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, could see winds in the 15 to 30 MPH range with stronger gusts possible. As the low tracks inland through southern California Friday night and early Saturday, these winds will quickly die off. North of Kern County, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain Discussion: The chance for measurable rain on the valley floor now appears greater, even though this cut off low will be moisture starved. The northern limit of possible measurable rain is likely across Merced County. The bottom line is, the farther south you progress, and the closer you are to the foothills, the greater the possibility of measurable rain. Highest possibility will be from roughly midday Friday through very early Saturday. I must emphasize that most locations will likely not pick up measurable rain. Locations that do receive the blessing of rain will pick up no m ore than .10. dry weather will return by midday Saturday. for now, it appears dry weather will continue through the end of the month.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight through at least Monday morning. it’s possible a few river bottom and similar locations could dip into the lower 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, however no general frost or freeze is on the horizon.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range February 18, 2020: Delano, 100%/40% Porterville, 93%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .77, Parlier .72, Blackwell Corner .79, Arvin .81, Orange Cove .72, Porterville .71, Delano .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 51, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1638 -389
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 49.8. +0.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.42. Month to Date: .00. -1.30
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -1.08. Month to Date: .00 -.79
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 910, Parlier 976, Arvin 790, Shafter 863, Stratford 872, Delano 964, Lindcove 1118, Porterville 1457
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 Sunset: 5:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 69 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 58 11.51 126 9.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 48 9.17 111 8.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 75 9.47 125 7.55 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 39 7.17 96 7.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 51 7.65 110 6.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 50 5.84 94 6.22 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 72 3.55 91 3.91 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 36 5.63 176 3.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 74 10.40 128 8.11 12.83
PASO ROBLES M 6.61 83 11.28 141 8.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 55 10.86 125 8.69 13.95
Next report: February 19/afternoon