February 21, 2020
Summary: Clouds are around the eastern rim of a closed low still well west of the central coast. Those clouds are increasing over central California. This storm does appear to be picking up more moisture than earlier indicated and has a good chance of spreading showers over the valley tonight and through at least the first half of the day Saturday. models show this storm moving rapidly to the east late tonight, centering somewhere near LAX by midmorning Saturday. the potential for more significant precipitation will be over the Kern County mountains and deserts. However, precipitation over the valley floor will be heaviest south of Fresno County. This is one of those situation where the counterclockwise circulation of the low will create a reverse rain shadow along the east side of the San Joaquin Valley Saturday. even so, about .10 to .25 is possible, mainly in the south valley. From Fresno County north, possibly just a few hundredths will be tallied. By Saturday evening, the low will have raced into northern Arizona, ending the precipitation threat.
After this system moves through, a large high will build over the eastern Pacific and into the western one-third of the U.S. This will begin a significant warming trend. Some models actually show daytime highs near the 80 degree mark next Thursday when the high will be in close proximity to central California. Some models are indicating a possible change will take place next weekend. A large low is projected to form off the California coast. For now, we’ll approach that projection with caution considering the persistent dry, blocking ridge pattern that has been so dominant this season.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today. Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of showers this evening. Showers likely after midnight through Saturday morning. showers ending Saturday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Saturday night through Friday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/46/65/39/65 | Reedley 72/45/64/38/66 | Dinuba 71/45/64/38/64 | |
| Porterville 74/45/64/38/66 | Lindsay 73/44/64/38/65 | Delano 73/47/64/49/66 | |
| Bakersfield 76/51/63/46/65 | Taft 75/51/63/47/67 | Arvin 77/46/63/41/65 | |
| Lamont 76/47/63/42/66 | Pixley 73/46/64/39/66 | Tulare 71/45/63/38/64 | |
| Woodlake 72/45/64/39/66 | Hanford 73/46/64/40/67 | Orosi 72/44/64/38/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 38/66 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 39/68 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 40/75 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 41/78 |
Friday
Mostly clear 42/78 |
Two Week Outlook: February 28 through March 5: This model places us back into a blocking ridge pattern, resulting in generally above average temperatures. As you might imagine, the chance for precipitation will remain quite low.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: There is a chance of locally gusty east to southeast winds, mainly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains today and tonight with local gusts to 35 MPH possible. North of Kern County, winds will remain generally light and variable. Winds Saturday through Monday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The chance for showers will begin to increase later this evening then become likely after midnight through Saturday morning. most of the models now track the center of circulation of that off shore low across the Los Angeles basin tomorrow morning then through northern Arizona by Saturday evening. So, the best window of opportunity for precipitation will be from midnight through midday Saturday. the chance of rain will diminish rapidly after that. Rainfall amounts from Fresno County north will be generally less than .10. However, south of Fresno County, .10 to .25 is possible, locally heavy amounts could occur near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains. Unfortunately, this is the last precipitation event on the map as a strong dome of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific and west coast through next week. Some models are suggesting a possible change later next weekend, but considering the trends of this winter, we’ll approach that projection with skepticism.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/90%
Actual Humidity range February 20, 2020: Delano, 100%/37% Porterville, 98%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .81, Parlier .75, Blackwell Corner .80, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .75, Porterville .74, Delano .76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 53, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 52, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 77/26. Average Temperatures: 63/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1659 -395
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 50.2. +0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.57. Month to Date: .00. -1.45
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -1.18. Month to Date: .00 -.89
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 910, Parlier 976, Arvin 790, Shafter 863, Stratford 872, Delano 964, Lindcove 1118, Porterville 1457
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 Sunset: 5:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:04
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 73 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 79 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 75 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 57 11.51 123 9.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 47 9.17 109 8.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 74 9.47 123 7.73 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 38 7.27 96 7.61 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 50 7.65 108 7.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 49 5.84 92 6.36 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 71 3.57 89 4.01 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 35 5.63 172 3.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 72 10.43 126 8.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 81 11.32 138 8.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 54 10.90 122 8.92 13.95
Next report: February 21/afternoon