February 21, 2020
Summary: The closed low off the south/central California coast is showing signs of making its move towards the southern California coast. Doppler radar is showing light showers moving from south to north along the central California coast. Also, showers are showing up over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. There is a chance of showers during the later evening hours on the valley floor. That chance will increase dramatically after about 2:00am when the main dynamics begin to move overhead. most models show the center of circulation moving eastward to about Los Angeles County then through San Bernardino County, eventually ending up in southern Nevada by Saturday evening.
The best chance of measurable rain on the valley floor will be between 2:00am and roughly midday Saturday. precipitation amounts on the valley floor will be generally less than .10, although some locations, especially near the foothills, could pick up .25 or so.
Beginning Sunday, a large ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific then inland Monday through Saturday of next week. It’s possible warmer locations could be approaching 80 degrees by Wednesday, especially in Kern County with the remainder of the valley well into the 70s.
Medium range models are still showing Pacific storms being blocked from moving into California, so if the valley is to receive any measurable rain through the end of the month, it will have to be over the next 24 hours or so.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight and Saturday. there is a small chance of light showers this evening. Light showers will become likely after midnight through about midday Saturday. a small chance of showers Saturday afternoon, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Becoming mostly clear Saturday night with mostly clear skies continuing Sunday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/63/39/66 | Reedley 50/64/39/65 | Dinuba 49/64/38/64 | |
| Porterville 50/65/39/66 | Lindsay 49/64/37/65 | Delano 51/64/40/66 | |
| Bakersfield 52/63/43/66 | Taft 52/64/47/65 | Arvin 50/64/41/66 | |
| Lamont 50/63/41/65 | Pixley 50/64/39/66 | Tulare 49/63/38/64 | |
| Woodlake 49/63/39/65 | Hanford 51/64/40/66 | Orosi 48/63/37/65 | |
Winds: Locally gusty east to southeast winds are possible tonight in Kern County, mainly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Gusts to 30 MPH cannot be ruled out. Winds elsewhere will generally be at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Monday and less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours.
Rain: Doppler radar is depicting numerous light showers about 75 miles off the central coast, rotating from south to north. Light showers are also popping up over the high Sierra from Tulare County northward. As the center of circulation of this off shore low approaches the southern California coast late tonight, the chance of mainly light showers will begin to increase after about 2:00am. Periods of light showers will be possible through much of the day Saturday, especially before roughly noon. The main dynamics will move through southern California, so the best chance of any significant precipitation, small as it may be, will be in Kern County, especially near the base of the mountains. Most locations will probably pick up .10 or less. It’s possible that real estate from Kings and Tulare County south could pick up about .25 or so. The chance of showers will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon as the low moves into southern Nevada and northern Arizona. It appears this will be our only shot at any rain for the entire month of February as all the short and medium range models show a strong ridge along the eastern Pacific and the western U.S. through the upcoming week.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue indefinitely.
Next report: February 22/morning