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Forecast

February 22, 2020/report

February 22, 2020

Summary: The center of circulation of our upper low is approaching the Channel Islands off the southern California coast.  The freezing level above Vandenberg has dropped down to 6,900 feet.  That is indicative of a cold pool of air now moving into the southern  half of California.  Light showers are moving from southeast to northwest across the valley at this hour. However, dew points, especially in the south valley, are remaining in the mid to upper 30s.  this means the air mass on the valley floor is still quite dry, so much of the precipitation is evaporating before reaching the ground.  As of 6:30am, Porterville had recorded .03 and was the only location over the five county area to record measurable rain so far, although many locations have observed trace amounts.

 

The low will quickly move across southern California today with the center of circulation tracking through Los Angeles County then eastward through San Bernardino County.  The valley will be on the northern sector of the storm, so showers will move from east to west later in the day, quite the opposite of what we would normally see.  By this time tomorrow, the low will have already moved to near the Four Corners region, so the chance of showers will be over by later this evening.

 

Behind this system we find a large upper level high which will build inland behind the exiting storm.  A northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Tuesday then will become more westerly Wednesday through Saturday.  the combination of a warm bubble of high pressure aloft and a mild westerly flow will result in well above average temperatures Wednesday through next weekend.  It’s possible that, by Thursday or Friday, a few locations could be approaching the 80 degree mark.  One model shows a low moving through about the first of March for a chance of showers.  However, most models just show a dry pattern.  Incidentally, if measurable rain occurs in Fresno or Bakersfield, it will be the first measurable rain since January 26.

 

 

Forecast: Periods of light showers through early this evening.  Clearing overnight. Mostly clear skies Sunday and on through Saturday of next week.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/39/66/39/67 Reedley 64/38/66/39/66 Dinuba 63/38/65/38/65
Porterville 64/39/66/38/65 Lindsay 63/38/64/37/65 Delano 63/40/66/40/66
Bakersfield 63/46/65/43/67 Taft 64/48/66/47/65 Arvin 63/41/66/40/67
Lamont 64/42/66/41/67 Pixley 63/39/66/38/67 Tulare 63/38/64/38/65
Woodlake 64/39/65/38/65 Hanford 64/40/66/39/65 Orosi 63/37/66/37/67

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

39/68

Wednesday

Mostly clear

40/73

Thursday

Mostly clear

41/76

Friday

Mostly clear

43/78

Saturday

Mostly clear

44/75

 

Two Week Outlook: February 29 through March 6:  This model places us back into a blocking ridge pattern, resulting in generally above average temperatures.  As you might imagine, the chance for precipitation will remain quite low.

 

March:  This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far.  Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level  high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May:  This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way  into the southwestern U.S.  Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will be variable to 10 MPH today with locally stronger gusts near showers.  Winds tonight through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH from late morning through the afternoon hours and less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain Discussion:  Light showers were  moving from southeast to northwest across the valley as of the time of this writing.  Dew points were still in the mid to upper 30s, especially in the south valley.  As a result, much of the precipitation is evaporating before reaching the ground.  Dew points will steadily rise today, so it’s possible measurable rain will occur before this event is over by this evening.  Most locations will record no  more than a few hundredths, although isolated regions may pick up as much as .10 or so.  Considering no precipitation has fallen for the entire month so far, even a few hundredths seems impressive.  This will be the last chance for measurable rain for a while as we go right back to the blocking ridge pattern for the upcoming week.  One model shows a system trying to move through about the first of March, but others stick with the dry pattern.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to 10 days.   

                  

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern, Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 55%/95%

Actual Humidity range February 21, 2020: Delano, 99%/30% Porterville, 79%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .84, Parlier .75, Blackwell Corner .82, Arvin .86, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .74, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 52, Delano 51

Record Temperatures: 78/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1666 -401

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 50.6. +0.9

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.65.  Month to Date: .T. -1.53

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.83, or -1.22.  Month to Date: .T -.93

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 943,  Parlier 1008,  Arvin 817, Shafter 875, Stratford 904, Delano 993, Lindcove 1150, Porterville 1493

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:38 Sunset: 5:47 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:07

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  67 /  39 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  69 /  37 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  70 /  44 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  72 /  43 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  70 /  39 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  74 /  47 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  71 /  42 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1552 /  70 /  44 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /   M /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  68 /  53 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  65 /  42 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.27    56   11.53   123     9.41    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.92    46    9.17   108     8.50    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.69    73    9.48   121     7.83    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    38    7.32    95     7.70    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.54    49    7.79   108     7.19    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    49    5.95    93     6.43    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.83    70    3.75    93     4.05     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.16    35    5.63   171     3.30     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.99    71   10.43   124     8.39    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.61    80   11.32   136     8.31    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.79    53   10.97   121     9.04    13.95

 

 

Next report: February 22/afternoon