February 23, 2020
Summary: The weather system which moved through the southern half of California yesterday has absolutely raced eastward. It’s already over the Four Corners region. Behind the exiting low is a northwest flow along the eastern periphery of upper level high pressure off shore. This northwest flow is generating upslope clouds along the Sierra Nevada foothills of Tulare County and the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear.
This same northwest flow will keep temperatures close to seasonal averages through Monday with readings generally in the mid 60s. Beginning Tuesday, the off shore high will begin to expand inland over California, resulting in significant warming. As a warm bubble of subsiding air moves overhead, readings will top out in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and mid to upper 70s Wednesday through Friday. Models do show some high level subtropical moisture moving in from the southwest later in the workweek, however no precipitation will be involved.
The next major change in the pattern should occur Sunday and Sunday night as a low develops over the Pacific Northwest and drops into northern and central California. Some models, however, show this system sliding into the interior west. This far out, the chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada looks fairly decent, so we’ll add a slight chance of showers over the valley floor for Sunday and Sunday night then tweak this forecast as we go.
Bakersfield recorded .01 yesterday, which means they will not go through the month of February with no measurable rain. Fresno, however, received only a trace, meaning that in all likelihood no measurable rain will be recorded there for what is on average the wettest month of the year.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday with a slight chance of showers.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/38/66/37/71 | Reedley 66/39/67/38/72 | Dinuba 64/37/65/37/71 | |
| Porterville 67/38/67/38/73 | Lindsay 66/37/66/38/73 | Delano 67/39/66/39/73 | |
| Bakersfield 65/45/66/45/74 | Taft 65/47/66/47/75 | Arvin 65/41/66/42/75 | |
| Lamont 66/41/66/42/74 | Pixley 65/38/66/38/71 | Tulare 64/37/66/38/71 | |
| Woodlake 65/38/66/39/72 | Hanford 65/40/66/41/72 | Orosi 65/37/66/38/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 41/74 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 41/76 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 42/77 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 47/72 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 50/67 |
Two Week Outlook: March 1 through March 7: Nothing too exciting shows up on this model. As far as temperatures are concerned, this model is projecting average for the season temperatures. It also shows a low chance of precipitation.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the late morning and afternoon hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain Discussion: There were a few locations that received measurable rain yesterday. Arvin and Porterville each recorded .13, Mettler .10, Orange Cove .04, Taft .07, Delano and Visalia .02, and Bakersfield .01. some isolated thunderstorms popped up in Kern County between weather stations, so no doubt some locations picked up more than .25.
This coming week will be dry. The next chance of rain, which for now appears low, will arrive Sunday and Sunday night. models show a low center from the Pacific Northwest dropping into central California for a chance of mainly light showers. Other models, however, show this system moving east of the Sierra Nevada into Nevada, a common theme this winter. For now, the wording of “slight chance” seems appropriate. I’ll tweak this as the week wears on.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/95%
Actual Humidity range February 22, 2020: Delano, 100%/61% Porterville, 91%/61%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .79, Parlier .70, Blackwell Corner .81, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .65, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 53, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1677 -403
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 50.7. +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.72. Month to Date: .T. -1.60
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.26. Month to Date: .01 -.97
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 943, Parlier 1008, Arvin 817, Shafter 875, Stratford 904, Delano 993, Lindcove 1150, Porterville 1493
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:37 Sunset: 5:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 71 / 51 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 51 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 56 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 50 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 49 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 54 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 52 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 55 11.53 121 9.50 14.06
MODESTO T 3.92 46 9.17 107 8.58 13.11
MERCED T 5.69 72 9.48 120 7.92 12.50
MADERA T 2.90 37 7.32 94 7.79 12.02
FRESNO T 3.54 49 7.79 107 7.26 11.50
HANFORD T 3.12 48 5.95 92 6.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 2.84 69 3.75 91 4.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.08 1.24 37 5.63 169 3.34 5.18
SALINAS T 5.99 71 10.43 123 8.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 6.61 79 11.32 135 8.41 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 52 10.97 120 9.15 13.95
Next report: February 24/morning