February 24, 2020
Summary: California remains on the eastern periphery of a large upper high off shore. That puts us under a northwest flow aloft. This flow is lifted by the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, generating upslope clouds along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. At last report, Bakersfield was reporting the base of the overcast at 4,600 feet. Models do show progressively drier air moving in aloft with time. It will mix out the clouds, resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the valley later today. The off shore high will begin to shift eastward into the western U.S. beginning Tuesday for the start of a significant warming trend. Widespread mid to upper 70s can be expected Wednesday through Friday with warmest locations possibly eclipsing the 80 degree mark Friday afternoon, especially in Kern County. A couple of models show a weak upper air disturbance moving through Friday and Saturday, so some cloud cover could lower temperatures a bit.
Models continue to point towards a major change occurring during the second half of the weekend and into the new workweek. Some models show a trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest Saturday. as the trough moves through central California late Sunday, it’s expected to increase the chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The low is projected to track southward into southern California and actually intensify somewhat. On paper, this system appears similar to the last event we had where isolated locations picked up measurable rain but most did not. For now, we’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday. At the very least, it will be much cooler and somewhat breezy.
Once this system moves into the Desert Southwest by Monday night, the same old theme will repeat itself with a building ridge over and off the west coast for a return to possibly another prolonged period of dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County this morning with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Mostly clear this afternoon through Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday. mostly cloudy Saturday night through Monday with a chance of scattered light showers, mainly Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/38/71/39/75 | Reedley 66/39/72/40/76 | Dinuba 64/37/71/39/75 | |
| Porterville 66/38/72/39/76 | Lindsay 67/37/72/39/77 | Delano 67/40/74/43/77 | |
| Bakersfield 67/46/74/48/77 | Taft 68/46/74/49/78 | Arvin 67/41/75/43/77 | |
| Lamont 66/41/74/43/78 | Pixley 66/38/73/41/75 | Tulare 65/37/71/40/75 | |
| Woodlake 65/37/71/40/76 | Hanford 65/40/72/42/75 | Orosi 65/37/71/39/75 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 42/77 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 43/79 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 46/73 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 46/62 |
Monday
Chance of showers 41/62 |
Two Week Outlook: March 2 through March 8: This model actually provides a little hope for precipitation during the first week in March. It’s not a great expectation, but better than I’ve seen in a while. Temperatures will range somewhat above average under this pattern.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the late morning and afternoon hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain Discussion: We are still looking at the Sunday/Monday time frame for our next minimal chance of rain. Models are starting to show this feature similar to the last one we had where most locations received trace amounts while others, especially near the foothills and in Kern County, picked up measurable rain. At any rate, so far models are indicating this is a moisture starved system. The best chance of precipitation will be Sunday afternoon through Monday with the highest possibility of rain again being near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Once this system moves through the Desert Southwest Monday night, another blocking ridge pattern will set up for another several days of dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/90%
Actual Humidity range February 23, 2020: Delano, 100%/56% Porterville, 94%/51%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .70, Blackwell Corner .82, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .64, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 53, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1689 -404
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 50.8. +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.80. Month to Date: .T. -1.68
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.30. Month to Date: .01 -1.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 945, Parlier 1014, Arvin 817, Shafter 876, Stratford 914, Delano 995, Lindcove 1154, Porterville 1498
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:35 Sunset: 5:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DHM / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DHM / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 67 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 71 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 55 11.53 120 9.59 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 45 9.17 106 8.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 71 9.48 118 8.02 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 37 7.32 93 7.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 48 7.79 106 7.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 47 5.95 91 6.57 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 69 3.75 91 4.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 39 5.63 167 3.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 70 10.43 122 8.56 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 78 11.32 133 8.51 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 52 10.97 118 9.26 13.95
Next report: February 24/afternoon