February 24, 2020
Summary: Skies are generally clear over central California this afternoon. The only exception is some lingering upslope clouds along the lower foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Over the next 72 hours, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build inland over California. By midweek, there will be a warm bubble of subsiding air under the high, driving temperatures anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above average Wednesday through Friday with the warmest locations passing the 80 degree mark, especially Thursday and Friday.
The high will begin to break down over the weekend. Some models are handling a low pressure system differently than they earlier were. It will affect central California Sunday and Monday. Most of the previous medium range models show the low moving out of the Pacific Northwest and into central California, forming a new low center. The latest GFS model shows it dropping southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest then southward off the California coast Sunday afternoon through Monday. It is projected to eventually push through northern Baja Monday night and Tuesday. The chance of precipitation under this scenario would be determined by how close the low tracks off shore. If it’s a coastal hugger, then our chance of precipitation will be high. If it moves southward too far off shore, the chance of rain would be reduced. As usual, models are flip flopping, as they typically do this far out. We’ll keep a chance of light showers in the forecast for Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
In the meantime, however, fine spring-like weather will prevail for the remainder of the work week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday with a chance of showers Sunday afternoon through Monday evening, especially near the foothills.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/72/40/76 | Reedley 38/72/40/77 | Dinuba 37/71/39/75 | |
| Porterville 38/73/40/77 | Lindsay 37/73/40/76 | Delano 39/74/41/77 | |
| Bakersfield 46/75/48/78 | Taft 48/76/48/77 | Arvin 41/75/44/78 | |
| Lamont 41/75/44/78 | Pixley 38/73/40/76 | Tulare 37/71/40/75 | |
| Woodlake 38/72/40/76 | Hanford 39/73/41/77 | Orosi 37/71/40/75 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and generally less than 6 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Saturday night. models are still showing a chance of showers Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. There is, however, more model variance than we’ve been seeing. One actually tracks the system southward parallel to the California coast. If it’s close enough to the coast, it could give us a decent shot at rain. Others, though, show more of an inland trajectory. For now, we’ll maintain a chance of showers in the forecast for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue indefinitely.
Next report: February 25/morning