We will be out of the office Thursday afternoon, February 27. Reports will resume February 28.
February 27, 2020
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is virtually overhead and will drive temperatures to near record values again both today and Friday. There is a weak upper air disturbance well off the southern California coast which will spread some high clouds over central California, mainly tonight and Friday. But, it appears they will not be dense enough to really impact daytime temperatures. The high will break down Saturday as a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska dives southward through the Pacific Northwest and into northern California Saturday night. the trough passage will occur during the day Sunday. It still looks like a secondary closed low will develop over central California with a pool of cold air.
Even though this system lacks moisture, snow will be possible over the higher elevations with snow possibly as low as 3,000 to 4,000 feet. By Monday morning, the center of circulation will be near southeast California with a north/northeast flow aloft. At the surface, a strong off shore flow will develop Monday. There is a greater possibility of frost on Monday and Tuesday mornings now. This is discussed in the frost summary below.
By the middle of next week, a large high over the eastern Pacific will expand inland over California for a significant warming trend beginning Tuesday afternoon. It will accelerate during the latter part of the week. After this coming Sunday, it looks like dry weather will prevail through at least next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today. A mix of high clouds and clear skies tonight through Friday night. increasing cloudiness by late Saturday afternoon. Variable cloudiness Saturday night through Sunday night with a small chance of light showers Sunday and Sunday night. clearing Monday with the exception of Kern County and possibly southeast Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy. Mostly clear Monday afternoon and on through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 79/44/80/45/71 | Reedley 80/42/80/45/72 | Dinuba 78/41/79/44/72 | |
| Porterville 80/41/80/44/73 | Lindsay 79/42/80/44/72 | Delano 81/43/81/45/73 | |
| Bakersfield 82/53/82/54/75 | Taft 81/55/81/55/75 | Arvin 82/45/82/55/77 | |
| Lamont 81/48/82/49/76 | Pixley 80/43/80/45/73 | Tulare 79/41/80/41/71 | |
| Woodlake 79/42/79/44/72 | Hanford 80/44/80/47/73 | Orosi 79/41/80/44/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Chance of showers 40/57 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 33/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 32/64 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 38/69 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/74 |
Two Week Outlook: March 5 through March 11: This model is indicating above average rain over southern California and the Desert Southwest while northern California will have below average precipitation. Temperatures under this pattern will generally be under seasonal averages.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours through Friday night. Winds Saturday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts by late afternoon. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with local gusts to near 30 MPH possible, especially along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Models continue to point towards a moisture starved cold low system moving through central California Sunday and Sunday night. light showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada Saturday night with snow possibly as low as 3,000 feet Sunday and Sunday night. I would put the chance of measurable rain at any given location near 30%, perhaps a little higher near the Sierra Nevada foothills. The chance of showers will diminish Sunday night with dry weather Monday and for the remainder of next week. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, less than .10 is anticipated. I still want to keep a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday afternoon. If they do break out, locally more rain would fall along with small hail.
We will be out of the office Thursday afternoon, February 27. Reports will resume February 28.
Frost Discussion: With current temperatures reaching into the lower 80s, it’s hard to believe there will be a chance of frost as early as Monday morning. a cold pool of air associated with the low will be overhead Sunday. It may not even reach 60 degrees Sunday and Monday afternoons. Models indicate a strong off shore flow will prevail Sunday night and Monday with gusty northerly winds blowing down the west side of the valley. Dew points willower to the point where widespread low to mid 30s are likely Monday and Tuesday mornings with a chance of coldest unprotected regions in the upper 20s. We’ll continue to tweak this forecast, but recent model information keeps nudging the temperature downward.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/65%
Actual Humidity range February 26, 2020: Delano, NA% Porterville, 98%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .83, Parlier .75, Blackwell Corner .86, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .68, Delano .70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 55, Blackwell 54, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 55, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 79/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1714 -414
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 51.5. +1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/-4.01. Month to Date: .T. -1.89
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.43. Month to Date: .01 -1.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 960, Parlier 1030, Arvin 827, Shafter 880, Stratford 934, Delano 1010, Lindcove 1166, Porterville 1524
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 Sunset: 5:52 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 78 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 79 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 80 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 82 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 82 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 78 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1557 / 81 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 80 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 78 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 54 12.69 129 9.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 44 9.28 104 8.91 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 69 9.48 114 8.29 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 36 7.32 90 8.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 47 7.79 103 7.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 46 5.95 88 6.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 67 3.75 88 4.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 38 5.63 163 3.46 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 68 10.43 118 8.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 75 11.32 128 8.81 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 50 10.97 114 9.59 13.95
Next report: February 28/morning