February 28, 2020
Summary: As of 1:00pm, the temperature at Bakersfield, Fresno, and Madera was 80 degrees with all other locations ranging in the mid to upper 70s. High clouds continue to stream overhead from a benign upper air disturbance. That system will quickly be dispersed southward as a low now approaching the western Washington coast slides southward, moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday and into northern California Saturday night. it’s hard to believe that with temperatures in the lower 80s this afternoon, readings will only top out in the mid to upper 50s Sunday and Monday. By midday Sunday, the center of a cold core low will be somewhere in the immediate vicinity. Even though this will be a moisture starved system, scattered showers will occur over the valley floor Sunday with the much stronger daytime heating effect possibly setting off a few thunderstorms. The main concern is the potential for below freezing weather Monday and Tuesday mornings. That is discussed in the frost section below.
A strong off shore flow will develop Sunday night and Monday which could potentially generate some Mono winds in the central Sierra Nevada. It will also contribute to lowering dew points on the valley floor. Tuesday afternoon through Friday will be dominated by a ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific. The general flow pattern will be zonal into north America, creating somewhat above average temperatures with the storm track remaining well to the north. Some models project a low center will move through the Pacific Northwest next weekend, but it’ll be too far to the north for precipitation. However, the new two week model shows a high risk of rain for central California between the seventh and thirteenth. In fact, the possibility is higher over central California than any other place in the U.S.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a slight chance of showers after midnight, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Scattered showers Sunday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms from late morning to the early evening hours. Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail. Partly cloudy Sunday night but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and possibly eastern Tulare County. Partly cloudy Monday morning then partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 46/73/40/56 | Reedley 47/75/40/55 | Dinuba 45/73/40/56 | |
| Porterville 46/75/41/57 | Lindsay 45/75/40/57 | Delano 48/75/42/57 | |
| Bakersfield 55/76/43/57 | Taft 55/74/47/57 | Arvin 48/77/42/57 | |
| Lamont 50/75/43/56 | Pixley 46/75/41/56 | Tulare 45/74/40/56 | |
| Woodlake 46/75/41/56 | Hanford 47/75/41/57 | Orosi 44/74/39/56 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will be generally light Saturday morning then increase to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts Saturday afternoon, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will begin to die off along the east side by midafternoon Sunday. Winds will be generally light Sunday night and Monday with the exception of the far west side which can expect winds out of the north to northeast at 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: There will be a slight chance of a few showers after midnight Saturday night, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. The risk of scattered showers will increase Sunday, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out from late morning through the afternoon hours. Localized brief heavy rain and small hail will be possible with any thunderstorm activity. Rainfall amounts will range from nothing to generally less than .10. Where isolated thunderstorms occur, upwards to .25 cannot be ruled out. Dry weather will return Sunday night and continue for the remainder of next week.
Frost Discussion: We are still looking at widespread low to mid 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Potentially, the very coldest riverbottom and similar locations could drop to between 27 and 29, however most flatland locations will range from 30 to 36 degrees. On Monday morning, upslope clouds could develop against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. Where cloud cover is dominant, above freezing conditions will prevail. Wind conditions may very well aid in keeping readings above freezing towards the west side of the valley. There will be little, if any, cloud cover Tuesday morning and by then winds will have died off so there is a greater possibility of more locations being below freezing.
The very coldest locations may drop into the lower 30s Wednesday morning, but all others will be above freezing. Expect above freezing conditions Thursday and beyond.
Next report: February 29/morning