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Forecast

March 2, 2020/pm update

March 2, 2020

Summary: Temperatures from Merced north are anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  A rather robust northeast flow is generating gusty winds down the Sacramento Valley and into northern San Joaquin Valley.  The Sierra Nevada is blocking these off shore winds from penetrating the central and south valley where temperatures are roughly the same as they were 24 hours ago.  With clear skies and light winds tonight, areas of frost will be prevalent.  This is discussed below.

 

That cold core low is now moving through northern Baja and will continue to track eastward through northern Mexico over the next 48 hours.  That will allow upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific to build inland.  The northeast flow which is currently prevalent aloft will become westerly by Tuesday evening, bringing in a much warmer air mass.  Temperatures will take a good ten degree jump tomorrow with another 5 to 8 degrees Wednesday.

 

The high will continue to dominate our weather through Thursday night then will begin to break down Friday ahead of a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front.  It will drive through central California Saturday into Sunday with a chance of showers and cooler temperatures.  Models continue to show a large low parked off the central coast beginning Sunday.  It’s expected to just meander for about 48 hours or so before moving inland Tuesday night and Wednesday.  models are also hinting at a pineapple connection developing with this system, moving into southern California for possible heavy precipitation there.  After this system finally moves inland late Thursday and Friday, most models show a broad trough of low pressure developing over and off the west coast for periods of precipitation weekend after next and possibly even into the following week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night.  partly cloudy Friday.  Increasing cloudiness Friday night.  a chance of showers Saturday through Sunday morning.  partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 31/71/38/77 Reedley 32/72/39/78 Dinuba 31/70/37/76
Porterville 32/72/38/78 Lindsay 31/71/37/77 Delano 32/73/39/78
Bakersfield 42/75/47/79 Taft 45/74/47/78 Arvin 36/74/40/79
Lamont 35/74/41/79 Pixley 31/73/39/78 Tulare 31/71/37/77
Woodlake 31/71/38/77 Hanford 34/72/40/78 Orosi 31/71/37/76

 

Winds: Winds will generally be less than 6 MPH nights and mornings and at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Thursday.

 

Rain: The next chance of rain will arrive Saturday as a weak trough of low pressure and its associated cold front move through.  Models all agree on one thing and that is the fact that, if it rains at all, amounts will be light.  The chance of light showers will continue into Sunday morning.  expect dry weather Sunday through the following Monday.  A week from Tuesday, a low pressure system off the California coast will begin to slowly move inland Tuesday night and Wednesday.  models are hinting at a possible pineapple connection heading into southern California for possibly heavy precipitation there.  I realize this is a medium range forecast and a lot could change, but models have been amazingly consistent in projecting the formation of this storm.  After the low moves inland by Thursday night, these same models project a broad area of low pressure off the west coast for more precipitation possibly late next week into the following week.

 

Frost Discussion:  Temperatures south of Merced are roughly the same as 24 hours ago.  Dew points in the central and south valley are not that low and generally range in the mid to upper 30s.  Still, the pool of air on the valley floor is relatively chilly and, with clear skies and near calm winds tonight, widespread low to mid 30s are likely.  The very coldest locations will drop down to 28 to 29 degrees in isolated areas.  Most flat land locations will range between 30 and 36.  This will be the last night of frost as rapid modification will begin tomorrow as much warmer air moves in from the west.  In fact, daytime highs tomorrow should be between 8 and 15 degrees warmer than today with additional warming Wednesday.  above freezing conditions will prevail for the remainder of the week.

 

A cooler air mass will overspread the valley this weekend as a weak cold front moves through, but at this point it looks like temperatures will remain above freezing.  After this weekend, a mild and hopefully wet pattern will move in for a continuation of above freezing conditions.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

31

McFarland

31

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

30

Famoso

32

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

31

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: March 3/morning