March 3, 2020
Summary: Significant warming is taking place, especially above the valley floor. Both Sandburg and Blue Canyon at elevations of 4,000 to 5,600 feet are 12 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Even on the valley floor, readings are generally 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. The freezing level over Oakland zoomed all the way from 5,700 feet yesterday to 11,900 feet just a few hours ago. Obviously, upper level high pressure is building in from the west. From this afternoon through Thursday, a weak westerly flow aloft will be evident and, with a warm bubble of subsiding air almost directly above central California Wednesday and Thursday, daytime highs will again eclipse the 80 degree mark in the warmest locations.
The high will shift southeastward Friday as a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front move in from the northwest Saturday. the chance for measurable rain with this event appears pretty marginal with the greatest risk of rain being over the Sierra Nevada. Don’t be surprised if many locations remain dry. At the very least, a significant cooling trend will occur. Unlike the last system, however, there is no pool of cold air aloft to settle in over the area, so no chance of frost is seen for the foreseeable future.
Medium range models for next week still show a low pressure system off the California coast. One of the main models, however, places this low further south, eventually moving inland through southern California and northern Baja next Wednesday and Thursday. Other models, though, continue showing the possibility of the low moving into central California. Each model shows a pineapple connection, or as the modern people say an atmospheric river of air. One model shows all the moisture moving mainly into Baja and southern California while others show it spreading in further north.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thursday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday. Increasing cloudiness by late Friday night leading to a small chance of light showers Saturday into Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/39/79/42/80 | Reedley 72/39/78/42/81 | Dinuba 71/38/78/40/80 | |
| Porterville 74/38/80/41/81 | Lindsay 73/37/78/41/81 | Delano 74/42/79/44/82 | |
| Bakersfield 74/48/81/51/82 | Taft 73/50/80/52/81 | Arvin 76/42/81/45/82 | |
| Lamont 75/43/81/46/82 | Pixley 74/39/79/42/81 | Tulare 71/38/79/41/80 | |
| Woodlake 72/38/79/42/81 | Hanford 73/40/79/45/80 | Orosi 72/37/79/40/80 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 44/70 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 47/61 |
Sunday
AM showers possible 40/64 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 39/66 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 44/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 10 through March 16: This model indicates a predominant westerly flow resulting in above average temperatures. The signature of above average precipitation remains, especially for southern California and the Desert Southwest.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature through Friday. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: A weak cold front and its associated trough of low pressure will move through Saturday into Sunday morning. if anything, models this morning are even weaker on the chance of measurable rain for the valley floor. In fact, I would lower expectations down to the small chance category, and even then mainly from Fresno County north. Dry weather will prevail Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Medium range models continue to park a low pressure system off the California coast beginning Sunday. One of the main medium range models shows the low moving inland Wednesday, but mainly into Baja and southern California, reducing the chance of rain for central California. Others, though, hang tight in moving the low inland through central California. There does seem to be a common denominator and that is the addition of a pineapple connection.
Frost Discussion: Expect temperatures to be above 32 degrees indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Afternoon dew points, mid to upper 30s. Kern, mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/70%
Actual Humidity range March 2, 2020: Delano, 89%/29% Porterville, 94%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .92, Parlier .89, Blackwell Corner 1.08, Arvin 1.01, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .88, Delano .93. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 58, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 58, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 80/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1751 -427
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 51.3. -2.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.29. Month to Date: .00 -.14
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.58. Month to Date: .00 -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:25 Sunset: 5:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:30
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 31 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1541 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 52 13.50 133 10.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 42 10.24 111 9.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 66 10.09 117 8.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 34 8.06 95 8.51 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 45 8.55 109 7.83 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 44 6.55 93 7.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 64 4.47 100 4.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 37 5.99 168 3.57 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.03 66 10.69 117 9.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 6.63 72 12.38 135 9.20 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.86 49 12.10 121 9.99 13.95
Next report: March 3/afternoon