March 2, 2020
Summary: The cold upper low has now moved southward and is just west of the northern Baja coastline. Scattered showers continue over portions of southern California but will slowly diminish as the day progresses. Upper level high pressure is currently building into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The freezing levels are beginning to recover but are still quite low. The latest balloon sounding over Vandenberg indicated a freezing level of 5,700 feet.
The current northeastward flow will slowly become westerly Tuesday through Thursday, resulting in much warmer air aloft moving in overhead in response to increasing pressures aloft. As early as Tuesday afternoon, readings will move into the low to mid 70s with mid to upper 70s coming up Wednesday and Thursday. The high will begin to break down Friday in response to a long wave trough of low pressure which will move through central California Saturday into early Sunday. There will be a chance of light showers with this system, but significant amounts of rain are not anticipated. Temperatures will fall back to marginally below average Saturday and Sunday.
Models continue to point to a big low off the northern and central California coast beginning Monday. It’s projected to shift eastward over California late Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. In theory, this could be our first significant chance of rain for quite some time. It will be a slow mover, which could mean 48 to 72 hours of unsettled weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday, increasing cloudiness Friday night. a chance of light showers Saturday through Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/31/72/38/78 | Reedley 65/32/72/38/75 | Dinuba 64/31/71/36/77 | |
| Porterville 65/32/72/37/77 | Lindsay 64/31/71/37/78 | Delano 65/32/72/39/78 | |
| Bakersfield 64/41/74/47/78 | Taft 63/42/74/47/77 | Arvin 63/34/74/42/79 | |
| Lamont 63/36/75/43/79 | Pixley 64/31/72/38/78 | Tulare 74/31/71/37/76 | |
| Woodlake 64/31/72/37/77 | Hanford 65/34/72/40/78 | Orosi 64/31/72/38/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 41/75 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 42/69 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 47/65 |
Sunday
AM showers possible 38/63 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 39/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 9 through March 15: This model indicates a predominant westerly flow resulting in above average temperatures. The signature of above average precipitation remains, especially for southern California and the Desert Southwest.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature through Thursday. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The next chance of rain will arrive Saturday. this system will be put together differently than yesterday’s event. A cold front and its associated upper trough will move through for a chance of light showers. The best chance of measurable rain will be from Fresno County northward. The chance of showers will continue into Sunday morning with dry weather Sunday afternoon through Monday night.
For about the last week, medium range models have been placing a big low off the California coast Monday. It’s projected to slowly move inland late Tuesday through Thursday. This could be our best chance of significant precipitation. Models after next Thursday do not appear to be as active as previously indicated.
Frost Discussion: Low to mid 30s were widespread last night with a few upper 30s in Kern County. The coldest frost stations were Navelencia and Sanger, each at 29. Even though the modification process will begin today, dew points are low enough for widespread low to mid 30s once again overnight with the typical frost pockets briefly down into the upper 20s. some locations, mainly in Kern County, will remain above freezing.
By Wednesday morning, all locations will be above freezing with the possible exception of a few river bottoms which may approach the 32 degree mark briefly before sunrise. Expect above freezing conditions from Thursday and on through the remainder of the week and next week looks safe, as well.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Afternoon dew points, upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern, Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity range March 1, 2020: Delano, 82%/34% Porterville, 87%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .88, Blackwell Corner 1.04, Arvin .96, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .86, Delano .91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 58, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 58, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 82/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1736 -431
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 52.5. -0.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.22. Month to Date: .00 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.56. Month to Date: .00 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:26 Sunset: 5:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 54 / 42 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 46 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1540 / 62 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 62 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 52 12.77 126 10.10 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 43 9.32 102 9.15 13.11
MERCED T 5.69 66 9.54 111 8.57 12.50
MADERA T 2.90 34 7.57 90 8.42 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 46 7.82 101 7.76 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 45 6.19 89 6.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 65 3.89 88 4.40 6.47
BISHOP T 1.32 37 5.63 159 3.54 5.18
SALINAS 0.04 6.03 66 10.57 116 9.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 6.61 73 11.85 130 9.10 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 48 11.41 115 9.89 13.95
Next report: March 2/afternoon