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Forecast

March 4, 2020/report

 

March 4, 2020

Summary: Temperatures this morning on the valley floor are running 3 to 4 degrees warmer on average than 24 hours ago.  Sandburg at an elevation of 4,100 feet is a balmy 57 degrees, eleven degrees warmer than yesterday at this time.  The freezing level taken a few  hours ago at Oakland was 12,100 feet.  All of this is indicative of relatively strong upper level high pressure which essentially will be right above us through Thursday night.

 

The high will begin to shift eastward Friday.  The flow aloft, which is currently out of the west, will become southwesterly ahead of a weak trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which will move through here late Saturday into Sunday morning with only a minimal chance of light showers, and even those are most likely from Fresno County north.  Temperatures over the weekend will be cooler with generally low to mid 60s Saturday through Monday.

 

Models continue to show the trend of a large low centering well off the central coast Sunday then moving inland Tuesday night through Thursday.  The GFS model is still showing the main dynamics heading through southern California, although the placement of the low this morning is a little further north, which would certainly increase the chance of the precipitation event.  Models also indicate that there will be a pineapple connection with this storm.

 

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies with occasional high clouds through Thursday night.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday and Friday night.  increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north late Saturday through Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.  Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with an increasing chance of rain Tuesday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 79/41/81/43/76 Reedley 80/42/81/44/77 Dinuba 79/41/80/42/76
Porterville 81/41/83/43/78 Lindsay 81/40/82/43/78 Delano 81/42/81/44/78
Bakersfield 82/50/84/53/79 Taft 81/53/84/53/80 Arvin 82/46/84/47/81
Lamont 81/47/84/48/80 Pixley 80/42/81/44/77 Tulare 79/40/80/43/77
Woodlake 79/41/81/43/78 Hanford 81/43/81/44/77 Orosi 79/40/80/42/78

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Slight chance of showers

47/66

Sunday

Slight chance of showers

40/62

Monday

Partly cloudy

38/67

Tuesday

Chance of rain

47/68

Wednesday

Rain likely

50/71

 

Two Week Outlook: March 11 through March 17:  This model indicates a predominant westerly flow resulting in above average temperatures.  The signature of above average precipitation remains, especially for southern California and the Desert Southwest.

 

March:  This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far.  Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May:  This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S.  Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature through Saturday.  Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  dry weather will continue through Saturday morning.  a weak cold front will move through Saturday afternoon into early Sunday for a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  Dry weather will return Sunday night through probably Tuesday morning.  the consistent model trend in moving a large low off the central coast inland late Tuesday night and Wednesday is still a go.  One model places the center of circulation just to the west of Vandenberg Wednesday with a juicy pineapple connection flanked underneath the low into southern California and northern Baja.  Models do place the low a bit further north than yesterday’s model runs, in theory this would increase the chance of some much needed precipitation.  This storm will be a slow mover, so rain will be likely from any time later Tuesday night through Thursday night.  some models position another storm in a similar situation not this weekend, but next weekend.  On paper, this would renew a chance at additional rain. 

Frost Discussion: Expect temperatures to be above 32 degrees indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Afternoon dew points, mid to upper 30s.  Kern, mid to upper 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 25%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/65%

Actual Humidity range March 3, 2020: Delano, 82%/22% Porterville, 96%/24%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .93, Parlier .90, Blackwell Corner 1.10, Arvin 1.04, Orange Cove .93, Porterville .90, Delano .95. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 56, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 57, Delano 53

Record Temperatures: 84/30. Average Temperatures: 66/41

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1761 -428

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 52.3. -1.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.36.  Month to Date: .00 -.21

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.84, or -1.65.  Month to Date: .00 -.13

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:23 Sunset: 5:58 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:32

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  71 /  35 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  71 /  38 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  72 /  44 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  73 /  36 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  73 /  32 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  74 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  71 /  40 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1550 /  70 /  37 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  74 /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  73 /  45 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  70 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.27    51   13.81   134    10.27    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.92    42   10.35   111     9.32    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.69    65   10.24   117     8.75    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    34    8.17    95     8.61    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.54    45    8.55   108     7.90    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    44    6.55    92     7.15    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.84    63    4.47   100     4.49     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.32    37    5.99   167     3.59     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    6.03    65   10.72   116     9.26    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.63    71   12.41   133     9.30    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.86    48   12.14   120    10.09    13.95

 

Next report: March 4/afternoon