March 3, 2020
Summary: Temperatures on the valley floor are anywhere from 8 to 12 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. In the foothills and mountains, readings are from 12 to 15 degrees higher than yesterday at this time. All of this is in response to building high pressure which is moving in from the west. A weak westerly flow will be prevalent Wednesday through Thursday. It will pump even warmer air in above central California. The westerly flow will become southwesterly Friday as the high is suppressed southeastward ahead of a weak trough of low pressure along with its weak cold front which will move through sometime Saturday afternoon or early Sunday. This is shaping up to be pretty much a non event as only a minimal chance of light showers exists over the valley floor. The Sierra Nevada will have the likelihood of light showers with snow possibly as low as 5,000 feet or so.
The unseasonably warm weather of Wednesday through Thursday will be replaced by seasonal temperatures over the weekend. A new low will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska to a position well off the central coast Sunday. For the second model run in a row, the GFS model is moving the main dynamics of this storm inland through southern California and Baja Wednesday and Thursday while other models still show it moving more through northern and central California. The possibility of a pineapple connection is still showing up so this could be a drencher for southern California and a disappointment for northern and central California. The other line of thinking on models is significant rain for central California as well.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday. Increasing clouds Friday night. A small chance of light showers mainly Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. mostly to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. partly cloudy Monday afternoon and night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/78/41/80 | Reedley 38/79/42/81 | Dinuba 37/78/40/78 | |
| Porterville 38/80/42/81 | Lindsay 37/78/40/80 | Delano 39/79/42/81 | |
| Bakersfield 48/80/51/82 | Taft 51/81/53/81 | Arvin 41/81/45/82 | |
| Lamont 42/80/44/82 | Pixley 38/78/41/81 | Tulare 37/78/40/80 | |
| Woodlake 37/78/41/80 | Hanford 40/78/43/81 | Orosi 37/78/40/80 | |
Winds: Winds will generally be less than 6 MPH nights and mornings and at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Friday.
Rain: There will be just a minimal chance of light showers mainly Saturday afternoon into early Sunday as a weak cold front and its associated trough of low pressure move through. From late Sunday through Monday night, dry conditions will prevail. Models continue to differ on the potential path of a possibly moisture laden low pressure system. Most agree that it will move inland from late Tuesday night through Thursday. For the second run in a row, the GFS model is indicating the bulk of the action will be south of Kern County. Others, however, show it moving in further north for a decent chance of rain for central California. Our illustrious pineapple connection still shows up on paper. The only question is who will benefit: central California or southern California?
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 4/morning